Massive Texas Wager Moves Line, Makes Ohio State Rare Home Underdog On Saturday

Some bigshot at Circa Sports in Las Vegas bet $550,000 on the No. 1 Texas Longhorns +1 when they visit the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday at The Horseshoe for Fox's Big Noon Kickoff game in Week 1 of college football. 

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This triggered Circa, a "market-making" sportsbook, to make UT a slight favorite at Ohio Stadium vs. the reigning national champion Buckeyes, and the rest of the market is starting to follow. This is kind of crazy, especially considering OSU opened as -3 favorites. 

But, I get it. In fact, I almost bet the Longhorns. Their quarterback and Heisman-betting-favorite, Arch Manning, is making his much-anticipated first start. In my opinion, Manning will validate his hype this season and be an upgrade from former QB Quinn Ewers, who led Texas to the 2025 College Football Playoff semifinals, which it lost to Ohio State 28-14. 

Furthermore, the Buckeyes have two new coordinators and a first-year starter under center (five-star QB Julian Sayin). They lost two 1,000-yard running backs (Quinshon Judkins and TreVeon Henderson), a star wide receiver (Emeka Egbuka), and two starting offensive linemen to the NFL, too. 

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Meanwhile, the Longhorns return two ESPN first-team preseason All-Americans on defense, LB Anthony Hill Jr. and S Michael Taaffe. Plus, their sack leader from last season, pass rusher and five-star recruit Colin Simmons, is back. Hence, Texas will likely have a top-10 defense this year. 

However, this line has moved too far, and it's "Ohio State or pass" for me, now. The last time OSU was a home underdog was against Michigan in 2018, and the Buckeyes pounded the Wolverines in The Game, 62-39. Granted, I don't like Ohio State head coach Ryan Day as much as Urban Meyer. 

The defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes host the Texas Longhorns at Ohio Stadium Saturday in Week 1 of college football. (Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)

Yet, I trust Day a lot more in a big game than UT's Steve Sarkisian, whose biggest accomplishment as a head coach was a 2023 Big XII championship. And maybe OSU's new coordinators throw curveballs that Sarkisian and Texas aren't ready for. After all, the Buckeyes have a higher talent composite score at 247Sports.com. 

Also, Ohio State is 101st in returning production, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, while Texas is 103rd. So, it's not like this Longhorns team has achieved anything the Buckeyes haven't. That said, this line movement is unwarranted. Or maybe it isn't, and Texas and Manning blasts Ohio State in The Horseshoe Saturday. But I'll pay to find out. 

Best Bet: Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5 (-112), up to -1, at DraftKings 

• Ohio State 24, Texas 21

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my college football 2025-26 bets here.