Terrapins Should Take Down Spartans

Michigan State vs. Maryland, 6:30 ET

Yesterday might've been one of the worst basketball days I've had in quite some time. I went just 1-1 in college hoops, but I was crushed in the NBA with four losses. How close were those four losses? One of them was a bad call for sure. The other three… I lost by a hook, two points - and the guy I had could've it two free throws at the end to cash, and then a rimmed-out three-pointer. Sometimes sports betting is a really humbling experience. I'm hopeful that I can turn it around tonight as Michigan State takes on Maryland. 

Michigan State comes into tonight's game as the 8th-ranked team in the nation with a great 22-5 record. They are currently the top dog (tied with Michigan) in the Big 10 at 13-3 in conference play. This team had slightly lower expectations this season than they did when they entered last year. This season, perhaps, flying under the radar has helped them. The Spartans have won three straight games, including road games over Illinois and Michigan, and a home game against Purdue. At one point, or currently, all three of these teams were ranked. This is also a really tough stretch for Michigan State as they are hitting the middle of a seven-game stretch where they play five ranked opponents. What has been interesting to me about the past three games is how consistent the team is playing. They are scoring around 75 points and allowing around 65. Even before this stretch, when they lost three of four games, they were allowing 60-something points, and scoring somewhere in the 70s. Michigan State has done well on the road overall, but they did lose to USC and UCLA in a forgettable stretch. 

Dec 30, 2024; East Lansing, Michigan, USA;  The Michigan State Spartans bench reacts after a basket late in their game against the Western Michigan Broncos at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images

Maryland is having a good season themselves with a very nice 21-6 record. They are fourth in the Big 10 with an 11-5 conference record. For the season, they've been in pretty much every game they've played in. They lost to Marquette early in the season when they hosted them, but it was a close game with Maryland losing by four. Their other losses came on the Road against Purdue, Washington, Oregon, Northwestern, and Ohio State. All six of their losses were within six points. In fact, all five of the Big 10 losses came by a total of 20 points. Maryland has been at home the past two games, blowing out Iowa and dominating USC this past weekend. Maryland has a really nice starting five and they've done a phenomenal job of utilizing everyone in their lineup. They have five guys that are averaging 12 or more points per game. The rest of the squad is not contributing as much in terms of points, but when you need a solid five players, it is hard to find many teams better than Maryland. 

Maryland has done a really good job or protecting their home court. Michigan State has been playing very good basketball over the past few games, but keep in mind they aren't that far removed from having lost multiple games in a row. I think this should be a pretty close matchup. I am a bit concerned that Michigan State could squeak out a win. I'm going to back Maryland instead though and take them to cover the -3.5 spread. I think home court and the better starting five (not a deeper team, but better starters) will give Maryland the edge they need. This could be a sweaty one though.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024