Team Canada Can Take Down The French

Canada vs. France, 12:00 ET

Over the course of this Olympics, there have been a variety of headlines made from basketball teams. Team USA was in the news quite a bit because of the star power on the team, but also the names that were left off of the team. They also made waves because they were struggling against opponents in the warm-up games. Team Canada has somewhat flown under the radar aside from a few Dillon Brooks issues, but Team France had their own bit of controversy with a questionable call on a three-point shot that ended up tying up one of their earlier games before they advanced to this round. Canada and France square off today in the elimination round. 

Team Canada probably has the second-most talented roster in the Olympics. Behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they get one of the best scorers in the league, and they have a solid bunch of defenders and role players to also rely on. The team is one of the few that has a wide range of players on NBA rosters that they can select from, which makes you think they should be likely to advance in this game. So far, Canada handled Greece 86-79, beat Australia by 10, and narrowly defeated a tough Spain team 88-85 in their last game. After a slow start to the game, the offense came alive and dropped in 30 points in the second quarter, giving Canada an 11-point lead at halftime. From there, there were certainly some scary moments for the Canadians, but ultimately, they were able to maintain the lead, paced by Gilgeous-Alexander's 20 points. I think it is a reflection of the caliber of the team that they earned the top spot from Group A with many talented teams in that group.

France C Victor Wembanyama shoots a three against Team Germany in the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)

Team France is built significantly differently than Team Canada, and I'm not saying that because they don't have as many NBA players on the roster. To be clear, Team France doesn't have many on the roster, but they do have both the reigning Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year on the team. Rudy Gobert won't be known for putting up big scoring numbers, but Team Canada shouldn't have much of a chance to win the rebounding battle, and with Gobert around the rim, it will be hard for the team to get many close shots. Not only is Gobert there, but so is Victor Wembanyama. He also will force the team to alter shots and could cause chaos on both ends as he is a defensive mismatch for everyone on the Team Canada roster. The biggest deficit for France in this game is that they don't really have reliable guards, and that will be the reason they lose this game. 

I've said fairly regularly, I think Team Canada and Team USA are the two best teams in the Olympics. If France is to win this game, they are going to need to vastly outrebound Team Canada and force them into tough shots. For Canada to win, they will need to use their speed and playmaking. The Canadians have enough strong guards that they can overcome the lack of height in the game. I think team Canada is significantly better and should cover the -8 spread. I to have a bit of concern that if their outside shooting slumps here, Team France could keep it close or potentially pull off a victory. Germany just laid the blueprint for beating France - shoot well from the outside, move the ball, force turnovers, and try to outrebound them. Canada can do all of those things except one - the rebounds. It should be enough to cover this spread. 

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