Take Twins Early In Rubber Match

Rays vs. Twins, 1:10 ET

The Rangers were able to pull it off for us yesterday and give us a slight profit for the day as both games we played were plus money. Today, we shift to an early game between two playoff teams. Neither one of them has their best pitcher available for this one, but they are looking to get steal the series from each other as we get a rubber match. Let's see how we should play a game between the Rays and the Twins.

The Rays have had one of the more interesting seasons in recent memory. They started the year hotter than any team in history and stormed out to 13 straight wins. Around the All-Star Break they started to stumble and eventually fell out of first place in the division and haven't been able to reclaim it since. They also had their superstar shortstop go on the reserved list, or whatever you'd like to call it, as the MLB investigates him and an underage girl... which means he may not play the rest of his life. Still, they've been able to overcome most of that and have won four of their past five. They are 18-9 without Wander Franco as well, so his absence may have reinvigorated the team. Today, they send out Taj Bradley to the hill and he brings his 5.44 ERA with him. He had a very tough July that saw him allow 19 earned runs over 21.2 innings and didn't pitch again until September. In September, he's made two starts, both Rays wins, and he has allowed five earned runs over 11.1 innings. His last game against the Mariners he allowed four earned runs and three homers in the game. If he avoids the longball, he is typically pretty good. He has never faced the Twins before.

Jun 30, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) high-fives right fielder Luke Raley (55) after hitting a two-run home run against the Seattle Mariners during the fourth inning at T-Mobile Park. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) kneels at left. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are one of the few teams that are essentially a lock for the playoffs right now. It isn't because they are the best team in baseball or something, in fact, it is because they are in the worst division of baseball. If there wasn't a playoff spot for the division winners, the Twins would not make the playoffs. In fairness to them, if they were in the National League, they'd at least be in consideration for the Wild Card. But, all these hypotheticals mean literally nothing because they are in the Central, and the division winner gets a spot in the playoffs. Dallas Keuchel was added to the team a month ago and has been surprisingly successful for the Twins. He's made six starts for Minnesota and they've won five of the games. He has been excellent at home for the Twins with just three earned runs allowed in 21.1 innings. I'm still not quite sure that you can trust him completely, but for now, I can't blame you if you think he could win some games for the Twins. The Rays are 12-for-37 against Keuchel over his career.

Unfortunately for us, Keuchel is no longer a guy that you can just autofade. That made us quite a bit of money last season, but he has turned back the clock and turned a bit more reliable. I still think the Rays are the better team in this one and are more likely to win the game. Part of that is due to the bullpen though. It is a reasonable price as well in this game at -125. I could see this game being an under as well though. So, how do we play it? In this game, I'm taking the Twins through five innings. Keuchel has been very solid at home, and Bradley has been susceptible to the homer. I'll take the Twins through five at +120 and hope Keuchel continues his dominance.

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