Take Tigers To Take Down Tampa

Tigers vs. Rays, 6:50 ET

We kept the streak running last night as we grabbed another couple of victories on the diamond. It is always nice to be able to stack up wins and give yourself some breathing room. As I always say, this is all about bankroll management, and building this bankroll up allows us to weather any sort of losing streak. But, for now, let’s focus on the positive and enjoy that we’ve won four straight and have been nice and hot the last two weeks. Let’s keep it going tonight as the Tigers take on the Rays.

The Tigers are a team that we’ve covered quite a bit this season. It has been slightly intentional as I feel like they are a bit undervalued at this point and we are still getting some opportunities to take advantage of their pricing. Detroit is off to a nice start with a 14-10 record and a 10-3 road record. It is slightly alarming that they are 4-7 at home, but that’s not something to concern ourselves with in today’s contest. Let’s start with the actual concern about the Tigers and betting on them. Detroit is not hitting the ball very well. Collectively, they have a .222 batting average and have only scored 96 runs this season. That isn’t bottom of the league, but it is in the bottom third of the league. Their on-base percentage leaves a lot of room for improvement as well at just .298. The reason for their success has been their pitching staff which is sporting a 2.82 ERA, and holding opponents to just a .207 batting average. They also have only allowed 71 walks this season. This means they are keeping the bases clean and limiting damage, which of course helps a team that struggles to score. Today they have Jack Flaherty taking the ball for them and he has put together back-to-back quality starts and struck out 18 Twins in his past 12.1 innings of work. He actually has three quality starts in four outings. Rays hitters have done well against him in the past, going 7-for-20 with three extra-base hits. 

Sep 15, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz (2) advances to third base against the Baltimore Orioles during the fifth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

The Rays are hovering around the .500 mark coming into this game and I have some concerns that this team may never get over the hump. The team hasn’t been an offensive juggernaut in the past few years or anything – in fact they were very similar to how the Tigers are now – strong pitching and just enough hitting. This season they have to adapt with their pitching staff as last year’s two best pitchers aren’t in uniform (Shane McClanahan is injured and Tyler Glasnow is on the Dodgers). The Rays are hitting .240 for the season, but their On Base Percentage is only slightly higher than the Tigers. The pitching staff seems to be improving, but they still have a 4.37 ERA and opposing teams are hitting .248 against them. I’m not quite sure who is starting for the Rays, ESPN lists Shawn Armstrong and some books are listing Tyler Alexander. I’ll go with Alexander in this case and he has put together two nice starts in a row, allowing just two earned runs over his past 11.1 innings. The Tigers haven’t seen much of him with just two hits in six at-bats. 

This game is listed almost as a pick’em, but the way the Tigers are playing right now, it is a bit hard to fade them. Flaherty has been very strong for the Tigers and I don’t think the past success is the same as he struggled much of last year even after he came over to the Orioles. I’ll take the Tigers through five innings in this one as the Rays staff and bullpen (if this is a bullpen game) aren’t what they used to be. Back the Tigers. 

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