Take This Team In The NFC South

Making sense of a division with as much change as the NFL NFC South is quite the challenge, but hey, I'm up for it. All four teams have a unique situation coming into this one and I think that gives us an opportunity for money to be made. I'm going to discuss each team and see if there is a specific bet to take on them or if there is one that stands out for the division winner.

The Buccanneers were in first place last season and made the playoffs. That sounds like a successful campaign, but it was largely a pointless season as they were just 8-9 on the year which is somewhat embarrassing and a bad way for the great Tom Brady to have retired. Now they are turning the ball over to Baker Mayfield - an experiment that hasn't worked for the past two teams, so why will that be any different now? They have Kyle Trask waiting in the wings, and personally, I feel like you should give the guy a shot to see what you have with him. He can't be that much worse than Mayfield, but I assume the thought is that if Mayfield does well, they have a shot to win the division. If he plays poorly, they will put in Trask with even less pressure. They likely will be the worst team in the division this year, but it is possible they could be in third place.

The rest of the division somehow all ended up being 7-10. So, all of the teams were not great and all of them were within a game of each other. They all seemingly could have ended the season with the same record, but I think based on tiebreakers, the Buccaneers still would've made the playoffs. The Panthers were second in the division and made a splash during the draft by getting Bryce Young. They also have added Miles Sanders and Adam Thielen. Thielen may be on the wrong side of 30 at this point, but he is still a reliable wide receiver. I think the Panthers actually could be pretty solid if Young plays with the poise he displayed at Alabama. Now, Alabama had a great defense that could somewhat mask any shortcomings of the quarterback. I've seen him make some stupid passes, but he also had great weapons and was typically given a pretty decent field position. That's going to be different here. I do think they have the potential to take the division as he should be better than the hodgepodge of quarterbacks the Panthers rolled out last season. At +400 this is worth a shot.

This should be an interesting season in New Orleans. They have a new quarterback in Derek Carr. They are getting a healthy (at least as healthy as he has been in years) Michael Thomas, and they have a dangerous and productive Chris Olave in the mix. The running game has two solid players - Alvin Kamara who still has the potential to be one of the more dangerous pass-catching backs and Jamaal Williams who is very talented (and also hilarious). Defensively they have a lot of solid players that could drive the team to the top of the standings. I'd be surprised if their defense isn't the best in the division. They are and should be the favorite for the division, but I don't think you get much value in betting on them right now.

ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 08: Desmond Ridder #4 of the Atlanta Falcons reacts after a touchdown during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 8, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

The Falcons season was interesting because they were better than I thought they would be last season. If you watched Quarterback on Netflix, you probably have a decent reminder of it. They were seemingly in just about every game with Marcus Mariota and then he left the team, which I didn't really remember to be honest. They ended up drafting Bijan Robinson in the draft and he could be one of the best running backs in the game this season. They seem to have some solid pieces offensively. They had one of the best college tight end prospects in Kyle Pitts and now they have one of the best running back prospects in Robinson. The part that is still in flux is the quarterback. Desmond Ridder played in four games last season and the Falcons went 2-2 in those games. He only threw two touchdowns, but he didn't throw an interception. He was pretty accurate overall, and he did a decent enough job on the ground when he took off. Obviously, if they want to be better he needs to get them on the board more often, but he has weapons to do it. I personally still am not convinced and would think third place is more likely than first or second.

Overall, I'm going to take a small shot on the Panthers at +400. I do think they have a chance to win the division. The Saints are probably the most likely team to win the division, but I don't like the odds I'm getting. It might be better to take the Saints and Panthers over their win totals (8.5 for the Saints (-175 is too high for me) and 7.5 for Panthers).

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