Take The Road Dog In AFC North Battle

Steelers vs. Browns, 1:03 ET

I talked about a game between the Bengals and Ravens in my last post and I lost that game. Now I'm going to the other AFC North battle and this one kicks off our Sunday schedule of games. Both teams come into this one with a 6-3 record looking to pull away from the pack a little bit. Today we get a game between the Steelers and the Browns.

The Steelers are the team I probably have the least amount of luck betting on. Yes, I keep doing it. Yes, I am a fool for underestimating them. I just don't really get it. Their team doesn't do really anything well offensively and they are probably going to coast to the over in their win total again this year. Kenny Pickett is not a very good quarterback. He only has 1,616 yards on the season and six touchdown passes to go with four interceptions. What Pickett is, though, is a winner. He has led them to a 13-9 record in games he's played (one of the losses shouldn't even count as he left the game early). The Steelers don't ask him to do too much so I guess that's a good thing. We've known the Steelers to be a defensive-minded team and that remains true this season. They are getting a bit of luck as the Browns quarterback, Deshaun Watson, has been injured and is now out for the season. Preparing for him is different than preparing for Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but both are able runners so the defense will need to prepare themselves.

The Browns are at home in this one and have the best defense in the game. Those are two things that really cannot be understated in terms of importance. Defense is the key to so much in football and a strong one keeps you in pretty much any game. But, even the best defense can't save you when your offense produces so little that you give them no rest or solid field position. Thompson-Robinson started one game for the Browns already this season and he threw three interceptions in the game. That was also at home, against a solid team and defense - the Ravens. He is saying the right things about not being nervous and knowing what to expect now that he is getting his second opportunity, but I'm not sure that he will be able to manage against this tough Steelers defense. The Browns defense will make it tough on Pickett, but my guess is that field position will be an issue in this game and I expect the Steelers to have good position most of the game and that hurts the effectiveness of the defense.

I'm a little surprised the Steelers aren't the favorite in this game. I think they will win it and probably win with relative ease. Will Thompson-Robinson play better than he did against the Ravens? Probably. I don't think he will play so well that the Steelers are going be routed. Of all likelihoods - Steelers winning a close game, Browns winning a close game, Steelers blowout win, Browns blowout win, the least likely to me is a Browns blowout win. I'll take the Steelers to win this road game as the injuries are just too much for the Browns.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024