Take The Dog As Guardians Will Jump On Astros

Guardians vs. Astros, 8:10 ET

Another 2-0 day in the books yesterday. I'm not ready for this to slow down. It is a getaway day or a rest day for virtually every MLB team today. We know that Thursday tends to have fewer games to choose from, but that can also be a good thing. In some cases, it means that we can find an opportunity to spend a bit more time evaluating games and focusing in on areas we might not have looked at when there was a full slate and more games to look at. Tonight, there is just one night game and I’ve got a play in it as the Guardians take on the Astros in Houston. 

There are some franchises that just consistently overperform regardless of payroll, trades, managers, etc. The Cleveland Guardians have been on what feels like a decade-long run of staying relevant no matter who has their name on the backs of jerseys. They are off to another good start this year sitting almost 10 games over .500 and no real sign of slowing down. The hitting, an issue for them in previous seasons, has been very reliable with an average of around .250, and they have scored roughly 20 more runs than today’s opponents on the season. Sure, the pitching has been what has guided the club for the majority of this run, but it is nice to see the hitting do its part as well. Their staff is still pitching well with a 3.41 ERA overall and a 1.23 WHIP. Tonight, they send out Logan Allen to the hill. You kind of know what to expect from Allen. He will probably toss five innings and allow two or three earned runs. Of course there are exceptions, but that’s basically what to expect out of him. Astros hitters are 7-for-19 against him in their careers and four of those hits have gone for extra bases. 

May 1, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA;  Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker (30) tosses his bat after hitting a home run during the seventh inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Astros record is pretty ugly, but it wasn’t exactly pretty last season either. By the end of the year, they were in the American League Championship Series, so this is probably one of the few clubs that a slow start doesn’t much matter for. While the Guardians have won two of every three games, the Astros are on the other side, losing two of every three games. The team is certainly hitting the ball well enough with a .264 average, but they aren’t knocking in the ducks on the pond. The pitching has been the main culprit of the problem from the Astros as they have a 5.01 ERA and are allowing opponents to hit .257 off of them. Tonight’s starter, Spencer Arrighetti, has struggled to give much to the Astros as he has pitched 10.2 innings and allowed 13 earned runs over three outings. All three games he has appeared in have been Astros losses. His best start of the season did come at home, so maybe there is a chance he can correct things on his home mound.

10 runs isn’t actually that high of a total for this game (the over-under is 9.5, but obviously you need 10 to win the bet). I do think this game will trend closer to the over than the under, but I think the Guardians (despite not playing great lately) are the team to beat here. I don’t think Arrighetti is ready for the big leagues quite yet and teams have exposed him. Back the Guardians here. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024