Syracuse Should Cover At Home Against Seminoles

Florida State vs. Syracuse, 7:00 ET

It wasn't a bad night for college basketball last night as I went 1-1, but a 2-0 was once again within my reach and it slipped through my grasp. The winner was a relatively easy one as North Carolina took care of business for us at home against Wake Forest. This one wasn't really an issue at any point and I am hopeful we can get another one like that tonight. Florida State takes on Syracuse tonight in a game that should be entertaining and has a clear way to bet it.

Florida State comes into this game with an 11-7 record and is looking to keep their stellar 5-2 record in the ACC alive. They've played much better lately, despite losing their last game. On the season they had a really rough stretch, where they lost five of their first nine games, including losing four straight at one point. Those losses saw them fall on the road to Florida and North Carolina, and at home against Georgia and SMU. They also lost on a neutral court to South Florida. Their losses have been a bit unpredictable this season. They have beaten some solid ACC teams and positioned themselves for a decent spot in the ACC tournament, but there is still a lot of work to be done. Since the start of January, they've gone 5-1, all against the ACC. They've beaten Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Miami. That competition is similar to the level of Syracuse. Florida State has three guys that score in double figures per game, and they seem to alternate leading scorers, which should make it difficult for Syracuse to key in on one area. They are not very good three-point shooters though, and that is something that gives an edge to Syracuse.

Syracuse is not exactly a top-tier team, but they have a 13-4 record and a 4-3 conference record. Their guards are the engine to the team, and that is a distinct advantage they have over Florida State who is bolstered mostly by their frontcourt. In this one, I expect their guard play to be the difference. They do shoot well from the outside and I expect them to penetrate, get stopped by the forwards from Florida State and kick out the ball to an open shooter. The forwards for Syracuse are fairly talented as well and involved in the offense. That will make Florida State respect the post and inside game while still having to deal with the outside threat. Syracuse on the season has lost to Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Virginia. Only one of those teams was not ranked at the time of the loss and none of them have come when Syracuse was on their home court. The biggest issue is that every one of those losses were games the Orangemen were clearly overmatched in. This is not a game they will be overmatched in.

Looking at the two teams in terms of statistics, the two squads match up rather evenly. Florida State scores one more point per game and allows one more point per game than Syracuse. The Seminoles shoot 44% from the field and so do the Orangemen. Blocks and steals are essentially the same. Syracuse has a slight edge in rebounds and assists. I do think Syracuse wins this game on their home court against an evenly-matched opponent. I also think the game goes under the total of 150.5. My official play will be Syracuse -3 for the game though. I think they should be able to take advantage of their edges and win this one.