Super Bowl Quality Defense Will Keep Lucky Steelers In Check

Texans vs. Steelers, 8:15 ET

I was on the Outkick Bets podcast the other day with Geoff Clark and Dan Zaksheske, and one of them asked if I preferred this pattern of two games on Saturday, three on Sunday, and then this one Monday Night Football game. The thought of more days with football is better, did occur to me, and I feel like I stand by that here. It definitely is good for watching something, but I do wonder a bit how it will impact whoever wins this game, as their next game will be a shorter week. That's a problem for a different day, though, and we still need to figure out who will win this game between the Texans and the Steelers.

The Texans were my pick to win the AFC South, and though they fell short, they certainly had a respectable season, finishing at 12-5. The biggest reason that they struggled was the beginning of the year being absolutely brutal. They started the season 0-3, but none of the games were out of reach. They lost the opener to the Rams by five, then lost the next game to the Buccaneers by one, and then fell to the Jaguars by seven. The problem was the offense; there is no question about that. It seemed to get resolved a bit as they played bad defenses the following two weeks, beating the Titans 26-0 and the Ravens 44-10. After the Bye Week, they ended up losing to the Rams by eight, beat San Francisco 26-15, and then lost 18-15 in a duel to the Broncos. Since then, the team hasn't lost a game. For the season, the most points scored on them was Week 18 as Indianapolis scored 30. They've only allowed six teams to even score 20 or more points against them this year. This is a Super Bowl-caliber defense, but is their offense up to the task? 

Jan 4, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) drops back to pass against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

The Steelers are lucky to be here, but don't expect them to play that way. Let's rewind a bit. The first three quarters of the game between Baltimore and Pittsburgh were pretty boring. Then the 4th quarter hit, and they both seemed to go "Oh, this is a winnable game, and we can make the playoffs. Let's try!" It was a back-and-forth battle until the Steelers scored a touchdown and pulled ahead by two. An extra point would give them a three-point cushion and at least keep overtime alive if they could keep the Ravens from driving the length of the field with roughly a minute left. The kick was wide and no good. Two-point lead. Now they had to keep the Ravens out of field goal range. Lamar Jackson hits a shockingly wide-open receiver downfield, and they get the ball at the 26-yard line. The Ravens miss the field goal, the Steelers are in, and John Harbaugh is fired. Which, side note, is crazy, and also kind of ironic that he mentioned he was a special teams guy before taking over, and special teams is the reason he lost the job. Coupled with the fact that they had Justin Tucker, one of the best kickers ever, who had to be released for off-field stuff. Butterfly effect kind of stuff. Anyway, the Steelers are in, and they are lucky to be here, but their whole season has been a mixed bag of good and bad play. It just so happened they got a good play when they needed it.

I'm usually pretty keen to fade a team after an emotional win. There are a lot of teams that you see win a big game one week, then lose the following or at least not cover. I can't say that it happens every time, and I don't have a great example from this season, so feel free to not trust me on this if you don't want to, but it is something I've used to success in the past. The problem here is I don't think there is a reason to expect the Steelers to be successful offensively. I am taking them to go under the 18.5 team total. I know Aaron Rodgers still has some left in the tank, and had a decent season, but this Texans defense is different and you're basically asking them to do what they've done in 11 of 17 games this year, or about 65% of the time. Give me the Steelers team total under. 

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