Super Bowl LVIII Opening Odds: San Francisco 49ers Favored Over Kansas City Chiefs

Published•Updated

The matchup is finally set: the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday, February 11. Bookmakers already have set the opening line and they have installed the 49ers (-2.5) as favorites over the Chiefs.

Betting on Patrick Mahomes in his playoff career has been very profitable for sports bettors. The Chiefs won and covered against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship. That victory marked the fifth-straight ATS win for Kansas City since last year's AFC Championship.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes captured his fourth AFC Championship on Sunday, giving him and the team a chance to win its third Super Bowl in five season.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes captured his fourth AFC Championship on Sunday, giving him and the team a chance to win its third Super Bowl in five season. (Photo: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)

In his career, Mahomes is an incredible 12-5 against-the-spread in the playoffs. This is his fourth trip to the Super Bowl in the past five seasons. In each one, the team that won the game covered the spread, meaning Mahomes is 2-1 both straight-up and ATS in the big game.

In addition, this marks just the fourth time in that span that Mahomes and the Chiefs are playoff underdogs. Mahomes had never been an underdog in the playoffs prior to last year's Super Bowl. Since then, they've been underdogs in four of their past five.

They were slight underdogs in last year's Super Bowl against the Eagles and won. The Chiefs were also dogs in each of their past two playoff games. Obviously, they won both outright, moving Mahomes to 3-0 straight-up and ATS as a playoff underdog in his career.

Despite playoff struggles, 49ers favored over Chiefs to win Super Bowl

On the other side, San Francisco is yet to cover the spread in this postseason. They beat the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round, but did not cover the 10.5-point spread. They also beat the Lions in the NFC Championship, but did not cover as 7.5-point favorites.

Dating back to last year's NFC Championship, the 49ers are 0-3 ATS in their last three playoff games.

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are favored over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII.

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are favored over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

But, prior to this skid, San Francisco was a strong playoff team against-the-spread. From the start of the 2021-22 playoffs until the loss to the Eagles, the 49ers went 5-0 ATS.

What might be more notable, however, is that the 49ers are 6-2 to the UNDER in the playoffs since the start of that '21-22 postseason. Most people think of the Chiefs as a high-flying offense with Patrick Mahomes, but they are 5-2 to the UNDER in their last seven playoff games.

Oddsmakers installed an opening total of 47.5 points.

There's plenty of time for the lines to change, but for now, the San Francisco 49ers are favored to win the Super Bowl over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Tags
Written by

Dan began his sports media career at ESPN, where he survived for nearly a decade. Once the Stockholm Syndrome cleared, he made his way to OutKick. He is secure enough in his masculinity to admit he is a cat-enthusiast with three cats, one of which is named "Brady" because his wife wishes she were married to Tom instead of him.