Super Bowl Betting Picks To Fade From One Of The Worst Analysts On The Planet
At long last, my nightmare is almost over! The NFL season comes down to one final game, the Super Bowl between the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs and NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles.
I say my nightmare is almost over because I had a TERRIBLE season betting on the NFL. In all seriousness, though, I'm very sad that the season is almost over. I love the NFL, even when it costs me money, and it's depressing that after Sunday we have to wait seven months for another meaningful game.
But before that, we've got one matchup left! Despite my terrible betting record, you know I'm going to throw money on the Super Bowl because, well, shooters shoot.
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Let's get to the picks!
NFL Conference Championship Betting Picks (2-2)
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) over Washington Commanders ✅
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 47.5 ❌
Buffalo Bills (+1.5) over Kansas City Chiefs ❌
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 47.5 ✅
SEASON REPORT CARD (40-46-2, 47%)
Ok, I was being dramatic when I called myself one of the worst NFL betting analysts on the planet. I had a terrible run from Week 12 through the Wild Card Round, but I've had some good weeks throughout the season, so I'm just under 50%. Still, since you need to win around 53% of bets to break even betting on the NFL, I've definitely lost a lot of money. But whatever. The NFL is awesome and I don't care.
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
Super Bowl Betting Picks
Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
Yeah, yeah, I know. Betting against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl is probably dumb. But the Eagles are ridiculously well-rounded, they are a team that can defeat Kansas City. The Eagles have the best offensive line-defensive line combination in the NFL, and that's going to matter on Super Bowl Sunday.
Chiefs tackle Jawaan Taylor is one of the most-maligned offensive linemen in the NFL and for good reason. Taylor is a penalty magnet and the Eagles defensive line should force him into mistakes.
Speaking of flags, the NFL is so mired in the "the league is rigged in favor of the Chiefs" narrative that they cannot afford to have a controversial call go in favor of Kansas City. Because of that, I think there will be a crucial call in this game that goes against the Chiefs. In a game that expects to be close, one big call could shift everything.
Plus, the Eagles defense is perfectly suited to dealing with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.
Obviously, Kansas City has a quarterback advantage, but that might not matter as much, since the Eagles don't rely on Jalen Hurts to win games. They rely on Hurts to not lose games. The rest of the offense runs through Saquon Barkley and that plays into Philadelphia's hands.
The Bills, despite losing in the AFC Championship, didn't have much trouble running the ball against the Chiefs. Buffalo ran for nearly 150 yards and over 4.5 yards per carry. The Bills' rushing attack is strong, but it's obviously not as good as Philly's top-rated rushing attack.
Kansas City even struggled to stop the Houston Texans' running game in the Wild Card, with Houston rushing for nearly 150 yards on over 5.0 yards per carry. Expect Philadelphia to do its best to keep Mahomes off the field and to control the clock on its way to another NFL championship.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 48.5 points
Based on my pick of the Eagles to win, it naturally follows that I think this game stays UNDER the total, as well. As mentioned, I look for Philly to try and run the ball and control the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field and that sets the stage for a lower-scoring affair.
Plus, I think there's just too much public sentiment for the OVER. The AFC Championship saw 61 total points and the NFC Championship featured the Eagles scoring 55 points against the Washington Commanders.
But over the Eagles' last 12 games (including the playoffs), they've only had four where the total score was 50 points or higher. And, guess what? All four came against either the Commanders or the Los Angeles Rams. Against all other teams, the total stayed under 50.
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs runs the ball against Jordan Davis #90 of the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium on February 12, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona.
(Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
The Chiefs haven't played many 50+ games, either. Over their last 11 games (including the postseason), Kansas City has had three games with 50 or more total points. Two of them came against the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs have actually only had five of their 19 games this season hit the 50-point mark.
Add it all up, and I believe the Super Bowl is going to be lower-scoring than most people think.
Jalen Hurts UNDER 27.5 pass attempts
Continuing with the theme, I'm looking for the Eagles to keep the ball out of Hurts' hands as much as possible and lean on their dominant rush game. In Philadelphia's first four games this season (in which they were 2-2), Hurts averaged 33 pass attempts per game.
Since then, though, Hurts has averaged just 17 attempts per game (excluding the game against Washington in which he suffered an early injury) and the Eagles are 13-0 in those games. There's not much more to say. I have the Eagles winning a low-scoring contest, which means Jalen Hurts attempts fewer than 28 passes.
Xavier Worthy OVER 67.5 rushing + receiving yards
Xavier Worthy has emerged as the Chiefs' most explosive offensive weapon, and they are constantly looking for ways to get the ball in his hands. Over the team's past five games (not including the Week 18 game against Denver where Kansas City sat Worthy and the rest of the starters), Worthy has averaged nine targets and two rushing attempts per game.
So, they want the ball in Worthy's hands, and he's a game-breaker capable of taking any opportunity for a big gain. He's averaging 8.8 yards per touch in those five games referenced above. If he keeps that average, Worthy needs only 7-8 touches to hit the over, and he's only had fewer than seven touches once in his past eight games played.
Xavier Worthy has emerged as the Kansas City Chiefs' most explosive offensive player, so expect him to get the ball often in the Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles.
(Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)
The Super Bowl is about getting the ball in the hands of your best players and Worthy is arguably the Chiefs' best offensive player (save for Patrick Mahomes, obviously) on the field right now. If you're looking for a big payout, there's value on Worthy having the most rushing + receiving yards of any player in the Super Bowl (+750).
Nolan Smith OVER .25 sacks
Did you know that Patrick Mahomes was sacked more times this year than any other in his career? it's true. Not only that, but Mahomes had never taken more than 28 sacks in a regular season prior to 2024 and the Chiefs star hit the turf a whopping 36 times this year.
That hasn't stopped in the playoffs, either. Houston sacked Mahomes three times and the Bills got home and brought down the Chiefs quarterback twice last Sunday. So, Philly is going to get a sack or two and the question becomes which player to back.
I'm going with Nolan Smith. Smith started slow, failing to record a sack in any of his first four games this season. Since then, though, he has 10.5 sacks over his past 15 (including the postseason). In addition, he's picked it up even more as the season entered the final stretch. Smith has four sacks in three playoff games, including at least one in all three. He has at least one sack in five of the past six games.
Expect the Eagles to line up Smith over right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who was already mentioned in this piece for his struggles, and expect Smith to win that battle several times. I'm betting at least one of those victories ends up with a sack of Patrick Mahomes. If you're feeling saucy and looking for a "dart throw," Smith is +15000 to win Super Bowl MVP.