Sunshine State Battle Shines On Seminoles

Florida State vs. Florida, 7:00 ET

Although the game of the year takes place earlier in the day. We still get a fun one in the evening as Florida State takes on Florida. I enjoy the full day of football and even though there are less games than normal on this Saturday schedule, I think today's slate should have some good ones, including this. Let's take a look at how we should bet this Sunshine State matchup.

Florida State comes into the game after dropping out of the top-4 rankings in the country. They didn't lose and are still 11-0 on the season, but they are now fifth in the country. Florida State does a ton of things well and the Gators will struggle to stop them on offense and will have a hard time moving the ball against the Florida State defense. The big story in this game though is that Jordan Travis will not be on the field for the Seminoles. That means that Tate Rodemaker is expected to start and has to make an immediate impact for Florida State. Rodemaker played really well in the game against North Alabama in what turned out to be a warmup for this matchup. Rodemaker was 13-for-23 with 217 passing yards and two touchdowns. It always helps when you have some of the better receivers in the nation. Florida's pass defense isn't exactly made from the shutdown variety. I expect the Seminoles to rely on their running game in this to ease Rodemaker into the offense.

GAINESVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 07: Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier during the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Florida Gators on October 7, 2023 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field in Gainesville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Florida has had an interesting story to their season. After starting the year 5-2, they've dropped the past four games. They have had a very tough schedule this year and have lost all five of their matchup against ranked opponents. It will be six after this week as well, especially as the Gators are also without their starting quarterback. In this one they will have to turn to Max Brown. Brown is a freshman and has thrown exactly 12 passes this season. The good news is that he's completed 10 of those attempts but hasn't gotten a touchdown yet. He's a capable enough runner but I don't think the running game of Florida will be able to make a huge mark against a strong Florida State defensive line. My guess is that Florida State will start by daring Brown to throw the ball. If they start getting beat, they will make an adjustment.

Florida State's offense will be too much for Florida to handle in this game. The Gators defense struggled against worse receiving duos and even without Travis, Rodemaker seems like he is capable enough of getting the ball to his playmakers. In addition, the running game of Florida State is better. The Seminoles defense is also better, but I don't think the skill level is that drastically different than the Gators. (To be clear, Florida State is better, but if I rank their offense a 10 and the Gators a 6 on offense, the Florida State defense is closer to an 8 and Florida a 6/7.) In any case, I think Florida State covers this game at -6.5.

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