Stefon Diggs From Buffalo Bills To Houston Texans Moves Betting Odds
The Houston Texans are making the most of QB C.J. Stroud's rookie contract and the sportsbooks are reacting. They are sending a second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft (via the Minnesota Vikings) to the Buffalo Bills for WR Stefon Diggs, a sixth-round pick in this draft, and a fifth-rounder in next year's. This trade caused a shift in both the Super Bowl 2025 and 2024 NFL Draft futures markets.
Houston's WR corp heading into 2024 is insane. Stroud will have Diggs and WR Nico Collins to throw to next season. Diggs is a four-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro, all in his four seasons with the Bills. Stefon caught at least 103 balls for a minimum of 1,183 receiving yards in his four seasons in Buffalo. Collins had a breakout season in 2023, catching 80 passes for 1,297 yards and 8 TDs.
Former Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs makes a toe-tap catch along the sidelines against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium in New York. (Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports)
Even though Diggs' production tailed off at the end of last season, he and Collins form one of the best WR tandems in the NFL. Plus, the Texans continue to invest while Stroud is still on his rookie contract. Houston signed 21 new contracts and spent roughly $205 million this offseason. Granted, the majority was spent on defense, since the Texans rightfully expect Stroud to improve.
How much does the Stefon Diggs trade help the Houston Texans?
For what it's worth, wide receiver is the most overrated position in football. For all the money thrown their way, wide receivers generally don't add a lot of wins. For every Tyreek Hill and Diggs to the Bills originally, there are the Davante Adams trade to the Las Vegas Raiders and Kenny Golladay signing by the New York Giants, which don't move the needle much.
Furthermore, Houston's odds of winning the 2025 Super Bowl at DraftKings lowered from +2500 to +2000 when news of the Diggs trade first broke. Then again to +1700 while I was writing this article. To me, this is an overreaction and I'd pass on betting the Texans to win the Super Bowl next season.
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud runs off the field after throwing a TD vs. the Cleveland Browns in the 2024 AFC wild card game at NRG Stadium. (Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports)
My premise is a wide receiver only matters to wins and losses if he has a good quarterback throwing him the ball. Aaron Rodgers developed Adams and WR Jordy Nelson into No. 1 options. Part of the "Patriot Way" was not spending on wideouts because New England had Tom Brady under center.
That said, Stroud to win 2024-25 NFL MVP at DraftKings (+1000) is not a bad look. In his rookie season, Stroud had the best TD/INT ratio in the NFL (23/5) with the sixth-best QB Rating (100.8), and the eighth-most passing yards (4,108). He is entering 2025 with a ton of buzz after winning his first-ever playoff start.
Ultimately, there's no world where the Texans win the Super Bowl without Stroud playing at an MVP level. Between Patrick Mahomes' greatness, Joe Burrow's return, and the Baltimore Ravens' organizational strength, Stroud winning the NFL MVP at +1000 is a better bet than Houston winning the Super Bowl at +1700.
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