Stats And Trends Point To This Game Going Under

Chargers vs. Patriots, 8:00 ET

We've reached the nightcap of our Sunday slate of Wild Card Weekend. While the NFC games are all figured out, the AFC still has a lot to determine with tonight's game and Monday Night's matchup between the Steelers and Texans. As usual, the playoffs are an amazing time of the year, and I expect this year to be no different. I'm looking forward to the Super Bowl, but I want to savor these last few weeks before we have to sit through six months without any snaps. Tonight, we have the Wild Card showdown between the Chargers and the Patriots. 

The Chargers went 11-6 in the regular season and weren't able to overtake the Chiefs from the divisional throne, as it was given to the Broncos instead. Los Angeles did put together an impressive campaign nonetheless. They were able to start their year with a win over the Chiefs, and they even beat Denver in Week 3 of the season. There were some moments where you had to question how good this team actually was. For example, the Giants, who are a terrible team, beat the Chargers 21-18. Sure, the Chargers needed to travel across the country, and the Giants had Jaxon Dart make his debut, but Los Angeles is certainly better than what they showed in that game. They followed it up by allowing the Commanders, another bad team, to beat them 27-10 in Los Angeles. The rest of the season didn't have quite as bad of losses, but they did drop a game by a lot to the Colts, and the Jaguars embarrassed them, beating them 35-6. The Chargers lost the last two games of the season, losing a defensive battle to the Texans, and then also the last week to the Broncos, a game they didn't really try to win. 

The Patriots came somewhat out of nowhere this season. I don't think anyone really expected Drake Maye to look this good this year, but he has been phenomenal. The likely MVP has thrown for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. New England went 14-3 this season with losses against the Raiders - if we are going to talk about embarrassing losses, the Raiders were the worst team in football. I suppose it is a bit forgivable considering it was Week 1, but the Patriots were at home for the game. Their other two losses came against the Steelers and the Bills. Actually, all three of their losses came at home, which is a bit surprising. Still, when you look at the Patriots' schedule, it isn't like it was all that difficult. They had four games against playoff teams this season and went 2-2. That's reason enough to be concerned. A lot of guys look great when they are playing bad competition, and they struggled against fringe contenders as well, but did escape with victories over the Buccaneers and Falcons. 

This could be a very ugly football game. I'm not trying to claim that the Patriots are a bad team, but I do have some hesitations about just how successful this team will be. The Chargers haven't had great luck in the playoffs yet, but you can't really predict luck either. You just have to prepare for it. I'm taking the under for this game for a few reasons. The Chargers have had 11 of their 17 games go under 46.5 points, and another two land at 47. The Patriots have had nine of 17, but again, they played mostly against bad competition. In addition, there is a crazy stat about Wild Card Weekend games going under if they are played outside. I don't buy too much into trends like that but the under in a game with a total of 41 or higher is 42-14 to the under. Give me this game under. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024