Sprinkle This +1200 Longshot For The AFC Champion
I don't like living in the past, but I feel like I should bring this up considering it is the same outlet and I want to showcase that occasionally I do get things correct around here. A couple of years ago, for Outkick, I previewed the AFC Playoff Bracket and talked about a path for how the Bengals could make the Super Bowl. I said not to be crazy, but it was worth a bet. Well, the exact scenario I laid out was correct and the Bengals made it. Conversely, last year, I don't remember who I said would win, so I'll just assume I was wrong - either way a long shot didn't make it. This article will talk about who should be in the running and worthy of your consideration as a potential Super Bowl representative.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are the #1 seed and have looked like one of the best teams in football all year. To say that you should bet them to win the AFC is kind of stupid. Of course it is a logical bet, they were the best team, they have the likely MVP, and they have the easiest path. That doesn't mean you should bet them though. They are +120 to win. Don't waste your money.
Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo Bills
If the Bills don't win game one, something is completely wrong with the franchise and they should just blow it up. They will face the Steelers, a team with no real quarterback. The Steelers, of course, have a solid defense, but that isn't (or shouldn't be enough). In order for them to make the Super Bowl, they need to beat the Steelers (fine, should be done), the Chiefs (eh, could be tough) and the Ravens. The Ravens game would be on the road, and frankly, I don't see it happening. This does provide a decent hedge opportunity as the Bills should get two home games and make it to the AFC Championship. Once there, you can have a +260 ticket and take the Ravens as something around -165 on the moneyline in the game for a unit and a half and make a slight profit. It is a lot of work for little return, so might not be worth it.
Kansas City Chiefs
I'll keep this one short. Their offense sucks, but their defense might be the best in the AFC right now. Sure, you can argue it is Baltimore, or that the Browns at home are better... or even the Bills current defense is in better form. Whatever you want, but I haven't seen this offense look good enough to matter this season. +500 for them to win over the Dolphins (I think they do), then beat the Bills and Ravens on the road... I don't see it happening.
Miami Dolphins
I already said I don't think they beat the Chiefs on the road, so don't play them.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are a team that I think could have a legitimate shot at winning the AFC if things bounce the right way. They face CJ Stroud, who has been outstanding, in the Wild Card round. Will they win? I'm not quite sure, but I think it could happen. If they win, they play the Ravens (unless Miami beats the Chiefs). The Ravens are a divisional team and those tend to be closer games. Joe Flacco is also a former Raven and probably is familiar with potential game plans. Say they get past the Ravens. Then you have to beat the Bills or Chiefs on the road. The Chiefs you could beat because their offense hasn't generated much and you have a great defense. The Bills are better at home, but all it takes is one mistake from the Bills. Now, this is the Browns we are talking about, and nothing good happens to Cleveland football teams, but I think this is at least a potential option and at +1200, I do think there is some value.
Texans and Steelers
I think the Texans have a shot to upset the Browns, but not go further. The Steelers are going nowhere. Hell, if they make the Super Bowl, I'll just donate $1,000 to a local Pittsburgh charity because I was so wrong about them.
If you're going to play this, I'd suggest a sprinkle on the Browns, and maybe a small play on the Bills so you could hedge.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024