Splits Lead To Us Taking The Over Despite Ace On Hill

Giants vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

I had a conversation this weekend with some friends about sports betting. Since the legalization of sports betting, more and more people have started thinking they will get rich, or at least try their hand at sports betting. Sure, it is easier than ever considering betting is at their fingertips. Listening to them speak, it made me realize casual sports bettors just enjoy the action rather than are looking for wins and losses. To me, this is an investment. I don't think I'll win millions of dollars or anything, but I do expect this to be a nice addition to my income. I'm looking to add to my investments tonight as the Giants take on the Pirates.

One of the big differences between me and some of my friends is that they probably have no idea who they have bad reads on. Again, the idea of just having action versus looking at it as an investment opportunity. For example, last year, I had a bad read on the Cardinals and White Sox. This season, I seem to have a bad read on the Giants, specifically with tonight's starter, Logan Webb. Webb is just 4-4 on the season with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. The ERA is actually pretty solid, but the WHIP leaves a bit to be desired and makes me wonder if his ERA should actually be higher. This season Webb has been awful on the road in comparison to his home starts. In San Francisco, the Giants right-hander has a 1.03 ERA over five starts. On the road, Webb has made five starts and covered just 24.1 innings, and allowed 16 earned runs resulting in a 5.92 ERA. The strange thing is that he has seven quality starts this season, but he also has three starts where he has been chased by the fifth inning. The Pirates haven't seen Webb a ton of times, and are just 7-for-30 against him over their careers.

San Francisco Giants starter Logan Webb pitches in the 4th inning vs. the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit. (Getty Images)

The Pirates are playing decent baseball this season with a 22-26 record and are trying to remain competitive while also build toward the future. The team finally has a bright future with players that are shining both at the Major League level and in the Minors. The biggest problem is this is probably about as good as the team will be this season. I don't expect them to be much better than a .500 squad. They are hitting just .226 which isn't enough to get the team in a great situation offensively long term. They also are among the lowest in runs scored. They did have a great weekend by taking three of four from the Cubs, but they still have quite a way to go within the division. Their pitching staff has been good and now is bolstered by the likes of potentially two aces in the rotation in Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller. Unfortunately, neither of them will pitch tonight as Martin Perez is taking his turn on the mound. Perez is just 1-3 on the season with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He was absolutely rocked in his last start against the Brewers. He allowed nine runs and five homers over five innings. It was almost unfair that they left the guy out there. He has three quality starts under his belt this season, but has allowed three or more earned runs in five of his nine starts this year. Unlike Webb, he doesn't have much of a difference with splits. Perez is letting Giants hit .281 against him and almost half of the hits have gone for extra bases.

This is one of those games that should go over the total even with some bad offenses. The Giants are probably in a better position to win this game with Webb taking the mound, but I'm not quite sure that I'd say that I have a ton of confidence in Webb winning this one. He has been so bad on the road. Perez has been very hit or miss this season as well. Neither team has a shutdown bullpen so I think we can tackle the over in this one.

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