Splits Indicate Who Will Win This One

Reds vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

We are almost at Memorial Day Weekend and that usually marks one of my favorite times of the baseball season. Nothing really says baseball like the Fourth of July, but Memorial Day is when I first went to a baseball game as a kid, so it has a special place in my heart. We aren't at the weekend, but I'm hoping to put together a great streak before we get to relax this weekend. In order to get on that roll, I need to get a win here as the Reds take on the Pirates.

When the season started, I was doing previews and power rankings. In my opinion, I had the Reds as an average team. They currently sit at .500 and are 24-24. This is about what I expect to happen for the whole season, and before you think I'm tooting my own horn, I also thought the Orioles were going to be great as well. The Reds should be competitive, but they won't make the playoffs as a division winner or as a Wild Card team. That is fairly unique as they are hitting well for the season with a .243 batting average, and their ERA is at 3.58 collectively. Those are the numbers of a team that probably should have a better record. They have won four in a row and are looking for a fifth tonight behind the left arm of Nick Lodolo. Lodolo is 3-4 for the season with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has been terrible at home this season, but he has been very good on the road with almost a five-run lower ERA on the road than at home. Pirates hitters have been okay against Lodolo with just 12 hits in 52 at-bats. 

May 25, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller (23) delivers a pitch against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pirates were a team that I had no expectation of success for this year. I have been saying for over a year now that they need to figure something out fast or they will not have Paul Skenes after his rookie contract. The reality is that they probably won't have him for the entirety of his rookie deal because he is going to request a trade. They are just 15-32 this season, a big step back from the success they had last year of at least being around .500 for the first half of the season. The team isn't hitting very well, with just a .217 batting average, and they aren't pitching much better with a 4.08 ERA combined. Tonight's pitcher, Mitch Keller, has taken a step back this year from his success last season. Keller is 1-5 for the season with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Keller has similar splits to Lodolo - the home ERA is at 5.33 and his road ERA is at 2.88. This isn't the optimal spot for Keller. He has faced the Reds multiple times and held them to a .206 batting average. 

This is one of those games where the Pirates should have a chance to win. However, the Reds are playing really good baseball. I like the way that the Lodolo is throwing, especially on the road. Sometimes some guys are just better in one situation than another and Lodolo has it. Keller is the same way, but he is pitching in his worse situation. Back the Reds tonight. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024