Split A Unit On The Brewers Vs Padres Game

Brewers vs. Padres, 9:40 ET

Baseball has basically this week left before the playoff starts and there are still a lot of things to figure out. There are quite a few teams that have found their spot locked up for the postseason, but there are others that are in jeopardy of blowing their season. Today we have a game with two teams that should have their spots fairly comfortably locked up. The Brewers won the NL Central and are probably going to be the #1 seed in the playoffs, and the Padres should be the #5, second Wild Card spot. 

The Brewers have put together a magical campaign, but they are in jeopardy of missing one insignificant milestone. They have a chance to win 100 games if they can end the season at 5-1, but my guess is they really don't care about that. Their goal has to be to win in the playoffs, and the only way they can do that is if they finish this season healthy. The team will spend this week getting the team time on the diamond, but making sure not to overwork any starters. They will have a bye, so my advice (that they absolutely don't need) is to play hard this week since they have the first round bye locked up. I can't believe it would make much sense to basically take a week and a half or more off of playing competitive baseball. The Brewers already struggle in the playoffs, so they need to get something figured out. They are probably going to have Freddy Peralta, tonight's starter, open their playoff series as well. Peralta is 17-6 this season with a 2.65 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP. He has put together a remarkable campaign and if it weren't for Paul Skenes, he probably would win the Cy Young. He probably will be a finalist still. He has been worse on the road than at home, but two full runs. He has been very good against the Padres in the past, holding them to just eight hits over 64 at-bats.

Apr 16, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (27) delivers during the second inning against the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The Padres don't officially have their playoff spot locked up, but it isn't a matter of if; it is a matter of when. The Cubs, ahead of the Padres, still could also be overtaken by San Diego for the top Wild Card spot. San Diego is 14 games above .500 whereas the teams below them are all just four games or fewer above. Remarkably, we are in the last week of the season, and technically, there are still six teams that have a chance at the final Wild Card spot in the National League. There were some questions about if the Padres were mortgaging the future for the current team, but it seems to have worked out as the team is two games over .500 since the trade deadline. They have been pretty average this month, going just 9-10 for September. Their goal, after locking up their playoff spot, should be to get their rotation in order. It might be tonight's starter taking the mound for them. Nick Pivetta has put together a strong campaign, going 13-5 with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He has been great at home with a 2.22 ERA. He has not faced the Brewers this season, but he has been hit hard by them in the past, allowing 20 hits in 63 innings.

This is a game the Brewers have the edge in. Although Pivetta has been good, and Peralta has struggled on the road, I think that the Brewers get a bit of an edge. I'd be a little surprised if this game stays under the total as well. I think both starters probably allow a few runs, and the bullpen should take care of the rest. I'm going to split a unit on the over and on the Brewers to win this game.

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