Split Play For First Five In Astros Vs Nationals

Astros vs. Nationals, 6:45 ET

If you are a casual baseball fan and I told you to tell me, without looking, who has the better record going into this evening's game, I'm sure the majority of people would say the Washington Nationals. The truth, as you'd probably guess now, is that the Astros are actually the worse team (record-wise) going into today's game. I think it is a fair assumption to think that the Astros are likely to fight for a playoff spot this season and for the Nationals to be a division bottom dweller, but for now your record says what you are. Today, we look to see how to play the game between the Astros and the Nationals.

The Astros, as I mentioned, are struggling significantly currently. They have double the number of losses that they do wins. The roster is not really missing anyone overly significant in my opinion, and their pitching staff gets back one of the most important pieces today (more on this in a moment). The offense actually is living up to expectations as well. The Astros are hitting close to .270 as a ream and have over 180 hits on the season. They also are near the top of the league in home runs. However, over 25% of their runs have come from the longball. That's not a great way to live, because you'll also die by the longball when you can't get one. Their pitching has been terrible with a 5.24 collective ERA. They brought Josh Hader onto the team, and he looks like he forgot how to pitch. The staff is not getting the job done - both starters and relievers. They have to hope that the return of Justin Verlander, today's starter, will bolster and stabilize the rotation. Verlander, although 41 years old, has been a monster the last few years, including winning a Cy Young in 2022 with a 1.75 ERA. He was traded back to the Astros in the middle of the season after leaving for the Mets last year. He did face the Nationals once last season and allowed just one earned run on five hits while striking out five over 5.1 innings. I'm expecting a bit of a pitch count here, but he still could get through five innings in this debut. 

It is hard to believe that the Nationals are less than 10 years removed from a World Series victory, and they used to have multiple of the games biggest stars. The franchise certainly has had its fair share of bad luck and injuries. Stephen Strasburg had flashes of living up to his potential, Bryce Harper was an MVP, and Juan Soto was (still is) one of the brightest young stars in the game. All three of them are no longer around the club, but I have to imagine that they have to be both happy and sad that only one World Series was produced from the crop of talent they've had. The team doesn't have that talent buzz around them any longer, but they are still a fairly competitive team. I look at them as if they are actually trying to win games whereas some of the other franchises don't seem to be putting real effort into it. Mackenzie Gore is taking the hill today for the Nationals, and though he isn't a hyped prospect, he is fairly talented. Gore has been good out of the gates, going five innings in each of his games (16 innings total) and allowing just five earned runs. He has a solid 1.19 WHIP as well which means he is limiting baserunners from the opposition. Most Astros hitters have seen him a couple of times with a 4-for-16 history against him collectively. None of those hits went for extra bases and they have no RBIs against him either. 

The Astros can break out the bats any time. They hit for average, they hit for power, and typically they can score a lot of runs in a short period of time. The Nationals, are not what I would consider an offensive threat, but they have some talent in their lineup. In this game, I think Verlander gets a chance to navigate the roster and ease back into the rotation. Gore will likely struggle a bit against the Astros. I'm going to take a unit and split it between the first five under and the Astros first five run line. I want no part of either bullpen right now. 

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