Duke Has The Best Price, Team Down South In The 2024 NCAA Tournament

When I look at the South Region in the NCAA Tournament 2024, I see a lot of flawed teams. The 1-seed Houston Cougars won the Big 12 regular-season title in their first season in the conference. Houston PG Jamal Shead is the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and MVP. Yet, the Cougars rank 229th out of 362 D-1 schools in effective field goal shooting and 231st in defensive rebounding rate. 

The Marquette Golden Eagles are the 2-seed down south but have been missing their second-leading scorer, and the nation's leading assist man, PG Tyler Kolek. They went 3-3 in the six games Kolek has missed, twice losing to the No. 1 overall seed in the tourney, the UConn Huskies, and once to the Midwest's 3-seed, Creighton Bluejays. Marquette coach Shaka Smart insists Kolek will play in the NCAA Tournament, but how effective will he be? 

READ: Arizona, Saint Mary's Will Vie For West Region In NCAA Tournament 2024

Next is the 3-seed Kentucky Wildcats, who are the best 3-point shooting team in the country. The Wildcats have three guys shooting at least 44.1% from behind the arc such as freshman PG Reed Sheppard, senior SF Antonio Reeves, and freshman SG Rob Dillingham. But, Kentucky is 108th nationally in defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pom. 

This leads to my pick to win the South Region: 4-seed Duke Blue Devils. Despite being one of the most popular programs in the country, bettors don't have a lot of faith in this Blue Devils team. Duke backed into the tourney, losing its regular-season finale to the North Carolina Tar Heels. Then getting bounced out of the ACC Tournament by the NC State Wolfpack. 

However, these recent results could give us value for the Blue Devils. There aren't many teams with more talent than Duke. 

Best value in the South Region: Duke Blue Devils (+650)

Duke's one-and-done performance in the ACC Tournament is why it's a 4-seed. Per Ken Pom, the Blue Devils are eighth in net efficiency. Besides that loss to NC State, Duke won its other two neutral site games vs. the Michigan State Spartans and Baylor Bears earlier this season. Michigan State is the 9-seed out West and Baylor is a 3-seed in that same region. 

Furthermore, all the NCAA Tournament games are played at a neutral site. Because of this, I'm shopping for teams that play well on the road. Well, the Blue Devils have the second-best net efficiency in away/neutral site games in the South Region, Bart Torvik. The North Carolina Tar Heels are the only team to beat Duke by more than 5 points this season. 

Also, Blue Devils C Kyle Filipowski is All-ACC First Team, PG Jeremy Roach is All-SEC Second Team, and SG Jared McCain is on the conference's All-Freshman Team. All three are top-20 recruits from their respective classes. Roach leads the team in 3-point shooting (43.6%) and Filipowski scores the most points (17.1) and grabs the most rebounds (8.2) on the team. 

Duke Blue Devils C Kyle Filipowski backs down North Carolina State PF Mohamed Diarra at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C. (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)

Duke has my favorite stat profile of all the teams in the South. The Blue Devils have a positive net in all four factors, they are 25th in minutes' continuity, according to Ken Pom, and four 3-point shooters in their starting 5. Plus, Duke attempts 7.3% fewer inefficient long 2-pointers than it allows. Ultimately, I'm picking the Blue Devils to eliminate Houston because, again, the Cougars cannot shoot and are small. 

I know I inserted DraftKings Sportsbook's odds for the South Region above. The only reason I did that is because DraftKings Tweeted out its odds and made it easier for me to share on the OutKick website. However, the best price for Duke to make it to the Final Four is at FanDuel where the Blue Devils have +650 odds. The most important thing about sports betting is "line shopping". Between overall talent, continuity, and an unimpressive region, I love Duke at this number. 

Early-round upset to target

10-seed Colorado/Boise State over 7-seed Florida

This is a fade of a Florida team more than me backing either of the play-in teams. Gators starting center, Micah Handlogten, broke his leg against Auburn in the SEC title game and will be out for the NCAA Tournament. Handlogten stands 7-foot-1 and is the anchor of Florida's defense, which wasn't good before his injury. 

Trainers attend to Florida Gators C Micah Handlogten after he broke his leg against the Auburn Tigers at Bridgestone Arena. (Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports)

According to Ken Pom, the Gators are 83rd in defensive efficiency, 320th in defensive turnover rate, and 223rd in defensive free-throw attempt rate. Adding to that, Florida ranks seventh in offensive rebounding rate. But, Boise State is fifth in defensive rebounding and Colorado is 15th. Plus, we've seen First Four teams carry momentum into the Big Dance and make a little run. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.