Soto Will Make Memorable Debut For Mets

Blue Jays vs. Mets, 3:10 ET

I can't predict a baseball game to save my life at the moment. I'm hoping that this is the worst stretch of my baseball season - if it is, at least I'll get it out of the way earlier. However, nothing that I'm predicting is happening the way that I expect it to. I have said for a long time the start of the season usually goes well for me and then I adjust based on splits and other things, but this start hasn't given me an opportunity to get a feel for the game at all. Let's try and correct that here as the Blue Jays take on the Mets. 

The Blue Jays are off to a better start than I am. They have ran off five wins in their first seven games and are doing better already than they had last year. I was a proponent of them much of last season, but I was also under the assumption that their bad start was due to a long road trip against tough teams to start the year. I was very wrong, they were just not a good team, and they were in one of the best divisions in baseball. It has only been seven games but the team has to be happy about their performance to this point. Splitting a series against the Orioles, and sweeping the Nationals is a decent enough stretch. They are hitting the ball rather well with a .288 average to this point, but the ERA is a bit inflated at the moment at 4.43. Considering their team WHIP is just 1.19, I think that the ERA will come down. One person who can help with that is today's starter Kevin Gausman. I'm not sure if we still want to consider him an Ace or Cy Young candidate, but he certainly still has gas in the tank and should be one of the best #2 starters in the league. He was really good in his debut this year, going six innings and allowing three hits, and two earned runs. Mets hitters have been pretty good against him though. Starling Marte has to be licking his chops as he is 8-for-13 with four extra base hits. Juan Soto isn't far behind, going 8-for-15, but three of those were for extra bases. 

TORONTO, ON - MAY 16:  Kevin Gausman #34 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre on May 16, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

The Mets are not a team I believe in. I've never really been a proponent of their team and I don't think the signing of Soto instantly makes them a World Series winner. In fairness to them, they were unbelievable last year after about the middle of the year. They made a great run and ultimately took the Dodgers to seven games in the NLCS. It is mostly the pitching staff that has me concerned, but the reality is they were good enough last year and they are actually off to a good start in that category this season as well with a 2.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The hitting has been the issue with the team batting just .188. Overall, they are just 3-3 and now get to have their home opener with Tylor Megill toeing the rubber for the Mets. He was very good in his first start, going five innings and allowing just three hits and one earned run. He's been good against the Blue Jays in the past as well in somewhat limited experiences. They are hitting just .206 against him collectively in 34 at-bats. 

This game feels like one where it could go either way. The Blue Jays have the better pitcher, but they haven't been a very good road team in the past few years. This is the debut of Juan Soto and I think it should be a good game for him in front of the New York faithful. Rather than put a play on the game (I like the under and Blue Jays, so fade away on those two), I'm going to take Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases at +125 or better. I could see him hitting a homer in his debut as well, but not really the odds I'm looking for. I'd like to play over 1.5 for Marte as well, but I'm only finding 0.5 at heavy juice. 

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