Something Has To Be Wrong With The Books For This Line

Giants vs. Orioles, 7:15 ET

I wrote about this game yesterday, and at least at the time of this writing, it looked like I will lose the moneyline play on the Orioles, but win the Devers under 0.5 hits. I played that for less anyway, so it wasn't going to be a complete wash, but we will see where this ends up. I am trying to get a jump on some lines when they come out because I'm testing a few theories and thoughts. There are plenty of other series that I could switch to, but the line on this one seems far off, considering the starting pitching matchup as the Giants take on the Orioles in Game 2 of the series. 

I wrote a lot about the Giants lineup and how they are underperforming to this point in the season, so there isn't much use in rehashing the Giants right now. I'm going to talk a bit about what I think needs to happen for this season to go right for both of these teams instead. The first thing that needs to happen is that Rafael Devers needs to get some power going. He has just 11 hits for the season, and only three extra-base hits. This is the focal point of the Giants lineup. The next would be likely to add an outfielder who can hit. The trio of Bader, Ramos, and Lee all have a batting average of .204 or lower. The good news for the Giants is that today they get their Ace throwing, so they might not need a ton of hits or runs. Logan Webb is taking the hill for San Francisco. This is already his fourth start of the year and each has gotten better than the last. To start the year, he allowed six earned runs in five innings against the Yankees. The next two games, he allowed four earned total in 13 innings against the Mets and Padres. Orioles hitters are batting just .185 against him. 

Apr 5, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt (40) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Orioles are not really getting the dividends they expected from their offseason spending and additions. Just like I'm not ready to pull the plug on the Giants, I'll proceed with caution on the Orioles. Baltimore is still a good team and has plenty of talent. They need Alonso to be a middle-of-the-order threat, and they need some other guys to step up. Gunnar Henderson has looked strong to start, with over half of his hits going for extra bases. They will need more support, though. I do think this team will ultimately be fine. They get one of their other pitchers they added this offseason to take the mound today. Chris Bassitt really needs to improve. Through two starts, he has a 0-2 record with a 14.21 ERA and a 2.84 WHIP. It is hard to find something positive to say about his first two outings. He has allowed 12 hits, six walks, and 10 earned runs through 6.1 innings. Giants hitters are also hitting .301 against him. 

This seems really odd that a pitcher of Webb's caliber is -120 against a guy who has looked as bad as Bassitt. Honestly, it probably is some sort of trap that I'm not seeing, but I have to take the Giants here. They have a significantly better starter, the Orioles aren't hitting well, and Bassitt has looked like garbage and has a bad history against Giants hitters. Give me San Francisco at -120 for two units. Some player props - Devers 2+ total bases and Alonso under 0.5 hits. 

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