Sneaky Value On Tanking Team In Final Game Of Series

Cardinals vs. Tigers, 7:20 ET

I know there has been a lot of talk lately about baseball going into a labor strike next year, and frankly that would be a disappointment. They are finally making some good progress with the adjustments to the game, and this would just disrupt things. In addition, it is a bad look, always, for billionaires and millionaires to argue openly about money that most of us will never experience. Part of it is due to broadcasting contracts, which have changed. Normally, we’d get Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN, but this game, still the only night game, between the Cardinals and Tigers is on Peacock, and I’m going to put a play on it.

The Cardinals were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball, but they’ve started fairly decent for the year. When this series opened, they were 4-2, winning series over fringe contender Tampa Bay, and the other against the Mets. The Mets should be a very good team, so even early on, this was a nice series win for the Cardinals. I don’t think fans are going to start putting money down for playoff tickets, but in a season that should be tough, this was a nice start. Tonight, the Cardinals send out Kyle Leahy. In his first start of the year, he was hit fairly hard. He allowed four earned runs over five innings on eight hits. He only had two walks and one strikeout in the start. Tigers hitters haven’t seen much of him going 3-for-9 against him. 

Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

The Tigers are expected to be the best team in the American League Central. I personally have a hard time buying into it, but they do have some very solid talent. Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez are very good starters. The lineup is where I have questions. It hasn’t been a big enough sample size to justify it one way or another, but they’ve been a bit all over the map in their first few games. They scored eight runs in the first game, then five in the second. In the third, they were shut out. Then they scored six runs, and five runs. Once again, they were shut out. Again, it is early, but my question is how consistent this offense can be, and if they are, can they be good? Tonight, they have Keider Montero going for them. This will be his first appearance of the season. Last year, he was worse at home than he was on the road, posting an ERA that was more than a full run higher. He also faced the Cardinals last season and allowed five earned runs in 5.2 innings. Some of those hitters that did damage to him last year are gone, though. Officially, Cardinals hitters are 5-for-15 against him. 

This is a bit of a surprise that the Tigers are this big of favorites. I'm not telling you that you need to take the Cardinals, but they definitely are where the value is at. It really wouldn't surprise me to see them pull out a win against Montero. The Tigers took the first two games of the series, but maybe the Cardinals can salvage the last one. It isn't a great idea to just assume they will. They haven't shown many reasons to believe they will put up a fight in many series. I think the better look is to play the over as neither starter seems to be a guy that opponents fear. Give me the over eight, and heck, it is Easter, give me the Cardinals too.

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