Skenes, Paxton, Set For Pitching Duel

Dodgers vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

Every now and then, you get a moment where you look at a book and just start to question things. I had that moment today as I was scouring the lines or something to play. As I was searching through the lines this one popped out and made me think that I have found a good opportunity for us to play. As I started to investigate the game a bit, I started thinking that maybe the book is right and we could be getting value. Normally I'd stay off of a game where I can see both sides, but right now I'm struggling on games I feel like I have a good read on, so I'll take my chances here as the Dodgers take on the Pirates. 

You won't find many games where the Dodgers are going to be listed as underdogs. Heck, you probably won't even find many coinflip games between the two squads. For the season, the Dodgers are 37-23 as a favorite. Their record overall is 38-24, which means they've only been underdogs twice this season and have gone 1-1 in those games. To be honest, I didn't dig much further to see who they won and lost against as underdogs, but it really doesn't matter either. Regardless of the past results, the Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball. They don't have much of a weak spot in the lineup, and this is a tough roster to get through no matter who is taking the ball against them. For a moment, let's focus on their own starting pitching as James Paxton takes the hill for the Dodgers. Paxton has been a strong addition to the rotation for the Dodgers. He only made it through fifty pitches in his last game, and that covered just three innings. This was planned as he was pitching on four days' rest for the first time this season. Seems a bit odd to me, but I'm not a medical guy, so I'll trust they are making the correct decision. I am not sure if he will be on a pitch limit in this game. He's thrown at least 84 pitches in every other start this year. Paxton has faced the Pirates only a few times in his career, but they've gotten the best of him with four hits in the 11 at-bats. 

May 24, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher James Paxton (65) pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The Pirates were able to take the series opener from the Dodgers last night, and are now favored against one of the best teams in the National League. Why are they the favorite? The answer to that one is kind of obvious: Paul Skenes. The phenom rookie has been as good as advertised and looks to try and mow down the opposition today. He was a tad rocky in his first outing against the Cubs, but he has now thrown three consecutive quality starts for the Pirates. He has also struck out 30 hitters in 22 innings, while only allowing six earned runs. Skenes isn't flawless out there, but he is allowing very few opportunities to the opposition as he has a 0.91 WHIP. 20 baserunners in 22 innings is pretty good, but I do have some reservations of how he will pitch in this one. The Dodgers are middle of the pack when it comes to striking out this season. His over/under total for strikeouts today is 6.5, which he has covered in three of his four starts this season.

Going back to my introduction, my first thought was to take the Dodgers as underdogs. However, I'm not sure the books are wrong in this game. The Dodgers traveled across country, lost yesterday, and now have a pitcher who they might be treating with kid gloves. Paxton has pitched well for the Dodgers, but the Pirates (in limited opportunities) have hit him rather well. I think this game probably goes under the 8.5 though. I don't think that the Pirates are going to be able to score a ton of runs, and I'd be shocked if Skenes allows more than three earned to the Dodgers. As far as the game, this is where it became tricky - there is no question the better pitcher is for the Pirates, but the better team is the Dodgers. I'll back the under and stick with just that. As far as the strikeout total for Skenes, I think the line is fair. 

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