Skenes Will Lead Pirates To Victory Once Again

Mets vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

I hope everyone had a happy and safe 4th of July. Most of all, I'm thankful I still have all my digits and am able to still use all 10 to write these articles. Small victories! I did lose our only baseball play yesterday as the Diamondbacks and Dodgers both put on an offensive show last night. Hopefully, you ignored my total and just played the Diamondbacks, that would've made for a profitable outing instead of a losing night. We are back to it as we focus on the game between the Mets and the Pirates. 

You've probably heard the term glow up quite a bit over the last few years. If you don't know what it is, essentially it is the Ugly Duckling analogy or story. You go from being a disaster to looking good or getting your stuff together. The Mets had a glow up in June as they turned their season from a disaster into a ton of hope. If the season ended today, they would be on the outside, looking in at the playoff race, but they are just 2.5 games back of the race right now. They went 12-8 over their first 20 games, and then 16-29 over their next 45 games. Since June 12th though, they've been able to win 14 of their past 20 games, so similar to what they did to start the season. That catapulted them back into the playoff race and going from seller to buyer at the trade deadline. Today they are sending out a pitcher that may not have been here after the deadline in Luis Severino. On the season, Severino is 5-2 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Those numbers are 30th and 34th in the league, respectively. That would put him squarely as a #2 starter in a rotation for almost any team. He was able to post three quality starts in June, but he also had two rough outings where he allowed 10 earned runs in 13.1 innings over two starts. For a month where he allowed just 12 earned runs, ten of them being in two games is rough. He did face Pittsburgh once this year with a great outing of six innings, no earned runs allowed, and just five hits. 

Apr 17, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

While the Mets were having a glow up, the Pirates are having an oddly steady season. That doesn't mean that they are successful or having a great year, but they are staying essentially where they have been all year. They currently sit with a 41-45 record for the year. They've been under .500 since having a 14-14 record in April 27, but they have never been more than five games under. They called up Paul Skenes in May, and that was a great addition to the rotation, as the team might now have one of the best starters in all of baseball. He goes against the Mets tonight and it is almost always can't miss baseball when he is on the mound. Skenes has 52.1 innings of work under his belt in this early campaign and is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA. He has 70 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP for the year. Basically the only way to score off of him is to get home runs, because he doesn't walk many people. For the year, he has just 10 walks and has allowed only allowed two walks in two starts this year. He also is oddly consistent with allowing six hits per game, as he has allowed six hits in a game in six of his nine starts. Skenes has never faced the Mets, so this could be a long day for their hitters. 

The Pirates are a different team with Skenes on the mound. This season, he has been so good for the club in the nine games. They are 6-3 over his nine starts, but he has had them in a position to win all 9 games. The books are well aware of how good Skenes is and how disruptive he can be to an opponent's offense. You'll see that he is heavily favored in most of the first five innings, that is true here, but I think for the game the Pirates have a better chance to win and there is some value on the -130 for the full game. I think they should be a bit higher in this and will take them on the moneyline. 

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