Signs Pointing Toward Under In Cardinals Vs White Sox

Cardinals vs. White Sox, 7:40 ET

This has been a very up-and-down season for me when it comes to baseball. I suppose not everything can go great - I did awesome in college basketball, had some great moments in the NFL, and even the hockey regular season was really strong for us. Still, baseball has been my bread and butter. The season is still young, so we have a good possibility of making a big run. I thought I was on one last week, but it fizzled out a bit more than I had hoped. Today is just as good as any to get another streak going as we take on the Cardinals vs. the White Sox. 

The Cardinals are 38-35 and currently sitting in fourth place in the NL Central. I'm not sure if that is a testament to how good the division has been this season, or if it is just a fluke that they are buried this deep despite being above .500. This is one of only two divisions in the sport that have four teams above .500 at the moment. The Cardinals are three games over, while the Red Sox in the AL East are in fourth place and are just one game above .500. The comparison isn't super important, but I do find the records and divisions always interesting as the season advances. The Cardinals are fifth in the National League in run differential as well, so I expect them to end higher than fourth place. Tonight they have Sonny Gray on the hill. He gives them a chance to win in any game. He is 7-2 for the season with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The only concern is that he has a 5.88 road ERA which is not good. In five starts, he has allowed 17 earned runs on the road, while allowing 17 earned runs at home in nine starts. I took a loss in his last start betting that he would pitch well against the Brewers - he allowed six earned runs in 4.1 innings. Overall, the White Sox are pretty good against Gray, hitting .270 against him. However, 11 of their 20 hits have come from Andrew Benintendi. 

Jun 12, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA;  St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The White Sox season is over and we knew it was going to be over from the start. They were one of the worst teams in baseball last season, and they are once again this season. However, they are better than they were last year, and sometimes all that experience of playing - even losing - at least gives some of these players a chance to improve. No one likes losing, but they are developing at the highest level instead of Triple-A. This can obviously impact the confidence of players though, as the growing pains can make them question if they can actually perform at this level. Tonight's starter, Sean Burke, is someone who is still searching to see if he can make it here. To this point, he looks like a capable enough performer with a 3-7 record, 4.71 ERA, and a 1.44 WHIP. He has made 14 starts this year, and he has allowed five or more earned runs in four of those games. There have been spurts of greatness, he has six quality starts this year. The Cardinals have never faced Burke, and Burke does pitch better at home than on the road with an ERA about two full runs lower. 

It shouldn't be much of a surprise that the Cardinals are heavy favorites. I do think that Burke will keep the scoring rather low in this game. Gray should be capable of doing the same. I like the under for this game. The Cardinals exploded for 12 runs last night. There is a bit of value on the White Sox as I think they could be live dogs, but it would be more of a risk to play this way. I'll back the under 8.5 for the game. 

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