Should We Count Out Denver Without Nix?

Patriots vs. Broncos, 3:00 ET

It was a craptastic weekend for me in the betting world with the NFL last week. After telling everyone and everyone that I went 6-0, I got humbled, as so often is the case, and went 0-4 in the Divisional Round games. Not only that, but my pick for the AFC Champion was knocked out of the playoffs by some very questionable things happening. Nontheless, I'm still happy we have football remaining. We only have three games remaining before we have to wait until around August to get football again. The Patriots and Broncos square off today with a ticket to the Super Bowl on the line.

I really don't want to rant here, but I also need to mention that I really don't want to see the Patriots successful. I'm happy that Mike Vrabel has improved the team - it is a good story. I think Drake Maye looks like a competent quarterback. The Patriots defense has been amazing. Maybe I just want some new blood in the Super Bowl. Both of these teams have had relatively recent success. But, I also should acknowledge that I would've been fine seeing the Chiefs again, so maybe it is a bias against the Patriots. I guess I can't really explain it. In any case, the Patriots are one game away, and they were the beneficiaries of an unlucky situation for their opponent. Bo Nix broke his ankle on one of the last plays of the game against the Bills. That means that the Patriots defense which just forced CJ Stroud into four interceptions, gets to play a backup quarterback. Before you think this is going to be a cakewalk, keep in mind that the Broncos defense is truly elite, and Maye has been fine, but not quite elite in the postseason so far. He has only completed about 59% of passes, is averaging just 223.5 yards per game, and has four touchdowns and two interceptions. 

(Eric Canha-Imagn Images)

It is a bit of a disappointment that the Broncos won the game because if they weren't going to have their quarterback, it would've probably made for better football if we would've gotten Josh Allen and the Bills playing against their division rival. Alas, we now have the Broncos with Jarrett Stidham under center with a Super Bowl berth on the line. No pressure. You, reader, have thrown as many passes as Stidham has this season. He has only taken one snap this year. Coincidentally, he was drafted by the Patriots in 2019 and threw a total of 48 passes for them. The last time he threw a pass was 2023, so hopes can't be super high. The expectation has to be that the Denver defense will not give up yards, and the Broncos offense can win in a field goal game. Expect heavy doses of RJ Harvey and schemes for Stidham has quick throws, short throws, or only one read. Sean Payton is an offensive coach, and Stidham will have a full week to prepare as the primary quarterback, but he is substantially different than what you're getting out of Bo Nix. I mentioned that the Patriots might not have won if they didn't get so many turnovers. Well, in fairness, the Broncos benefited from some questionable calls as well. So, yes, it is possible they could've lost last week even with Nix. 

Sometimes injuries happen at the worst possible time. This was the scenario for the Broncos with Nix. The Patriots are healthy, and really shouldn't have much trouble in this game. I will mention they played the Texans last week, and probably would've lost if Stroud played even a decent game. The Houston defense is that good. If the Broncos can do that, they might be able to give Stidham a chance. Maye is a young quarterback, too. I expect the gameplan from Denver to actually be solid here, and I think we are approaching too many points on the road, with a young quarterback with a great defense. The only issue is if the Denver team has lost faith, and I don't think that has happened. Give me Denver with the points. I also really like (and will play) the first half under. I think both the first and second quarter will be extremely low scoring because teams will be figuring each other out. Stidham getting used to game speed, and the Broncos being aggressive against Maye trying to force him into bad decisions. 

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