Senators And Flyers Should Cruise Over Total

Ottawa vs. Philadelphia, 7:00 ET

We were able to capture a win on the ice last night and with the NCAA Conference Tournaments starting, you'd probably figure that I'm more likely to write about those. You're right, and I will be covering those in detail shortly, but the thing is that I don't really like too many of the games going on today because most of them are between the lower tiered teams. Sure, there are some good ones, including a couple of smaller conference championships, but while we are doing well in hockey, we should show it some love too, right? Let's play this one between the Senators and the Flyers.

The Senators come into the game with a nice 33-25-5 record fo the year. Most of their success, though has come when they are skating on their home ice. On the road, Ottawa is just 14-16-3. In case you aren't really good at math, that means that they are 19-9-2 at home, meaning that about 58% of their wins have come from them being at home as opposed to road games. The Senators are interesting in that for the year they have allowed almost exactly the same amount of goals per game (2.83) as they are scoring for the year (2.84). In terms of shots, they are almost equal as well, but the Senators are taking about one more shot per game than opponents. It is close though. Perhaps most encouraging at the moment is that they are 4-1 over their past five games, playing some good hockey. I would mention that they have had close calls here, winning two in overtime and losing one in a shootout, so they could be on the verge of a loss. They are expected to have Anton Forsberg in the net tonight. He is just 8-10-1 with a 2.82 goals against per game average. That's not terrible and is at 29th in the league, but he has a .895 save percentage, something that does concern me.

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 03: Brady Tkachuk #7 of the Ottawa Senators looks on against the Washington Capitals during the first period at Capital One Arena on March 03, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

For the Flyers, their season hasn't gone the way that they would've liked. There are probably a variety of factors that contribute to that, but the number one in my book is that they are allowing 3.32 goals per game to opponents. The thing is, they are taking the exact same amount of shots as their opponents. For having the same amount of shots per game, they are only scoring 2.80 goals per game. I don't know if we should call this a bad offense, a bad defense, or a bit of both (probably the correct answer). Either way, their play has resulted in Philadelphia having a 27-30-8 record, and being average both on the road and at home. Their home mark is just 15-17-1, so there is never a lock at home either. They are also not playing great hockey at the moment with four straight losses. The offense has been able to only muster one goal per game in each of the past four games. They are going to have Ivan Fedotov in the net tonight as well. He isn't giving me much hope as he is just 5-10-3, allowing 3.02 goals per game and carrying a .886 save percentage.

Neither team is having a spectacular season, but I do think the Senators are better than the Flyers. If Ottawa was at home, I think they would be an easy choice. They aren't though so we really need to determine if it is worth it. They are certainly playing better hockey, but at some point, Philadelphia has to be better than one goal per game. They get a good opportunity tonight against Forsberg. But, Ottawa also gets a nice shot against Fedotov. I think the best bet here is to take the over. Neither goalie is that special and I am a little concerned that Ottawa can't pull this one out - but I don't want to back Philly either. 

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