Seattle Can Snap Skid Against Guardians

Guardians vs. Mariners, 10:10 ET

It was a 0-1-1 day on the diamond yesterday. The Brewers were the winners over the Cardinals and made their starting pitcher's debut easy by supplying him with eight earned runs. There was a bet from one of the guys that I really respect in the industry that I liked even more than my play, but my article was already published and I didn't want to edit it just to put a stolen play out there. The bet was on Jacob Misiorowski to get 5+ strikeouts, it was a good value for a strikeout pitcher. I blew it. Let's hope that the same doesn't happen today, as I have a play between the Guardians and Mariners.

The Guardians are above .500 once again, but it is only good enough for third in the AL Central. This division has four genuine contenders in the running for a playoff spot long term. The Guardians have one guy on the roster who is a superstar, but the rest of the team is made up of contact hitters and just good baseball players. I'm not sitting here saying that they are full of crappy players or anything, but you aren't picking most of them to be on your fantasy team or even to replace a lot of guys on your favorite team. They do find ways to win, though, which is the most important part of it all. Gavin Williams takes the ball for them tonight with a 5-3 record, a 3.86 ERA, and a 1.42 WHIP. He has been a bit worse on the road with an ERA about a full run higher, but it is in fewer starts. He has made back-to-back quality starts this month and in three of his past five games. He has only faced three different Mariners in his career, but held them to zero hits in 13 at-bats.

May 14, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates after scoring during the fourth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Mariners are letting this season slip through their fingers. They are currently sitting at 33-34 for the season, and they aren't even winning at home with a 16-17 record. The team had a great pitching staff last season, but it is not quite as sharp this year. They are collectively at a 4.06 ERA, and a 1.33 WHIP combined. The numbers aren't nearly what they were last year, and the offensive improvement from last season is not making up for the decrease in pitching effectiveness. Even though they don't have a winning home record, they are probably happy to be home after a 1-5 road trip. Overall, the team was 28-20 on May 21st, and since then has gone 5-14. Luis Castillo is looking to stop the bleeding. He has a 4-4 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. His ERA probably should be higher with the traffic he is allowing on the base paths. Castillo has a 2.25 ERA at home this season, allowing just 10 earned runs in 40 innings. He has allowed just one earned run over the past 12 home innings. Castillo hasn't been great against the Guardians, allowing 22 hits over 80 at-bats, including 10 extra-base hits. Jose Ramirez is batting .240 against him with three homers and two triples. 

The Guardians aren't playing great baseball, but there is no question they are playing better baseball than the Mariners. Seattle might just be in a slump, but there is always a chance a team can bust out of it and go on a hot streak. Last August they were the hottest team in baseball so they are certainly capable of doing it again. I think they have a good chance tonight with Castillo on the mound. I also think this game goes way under the total or way over, no in-between, but unfortunately, I'm on the fence with this. Take the Mariners in this one.

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