Saturday At 'The Spa': Saratoga Race Course Picks Include The Jim Dandy Stakes

My late grandmother, a former regular at the Saratoga Race Course, had a great take on betting at the track: The goal was to profit enough to cover the cost of drinks, food, and parking. Well, I'm up $189.50 through the first two weeks of Saratoga's 2025 summer meet, which is close to paying for two trips to The Spa. It's pricey, so I'm still in the hole, but it's something to build on. 

With that in mind, I'm bringing the money I won last week back to Saratoga Saturday for the Grade 3 Lake George (one of my favorite places to hang out in the summer) and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. There's a slight chance I'll add bets on X, but here's what I have now. 

Saratoga Race Course Bet Slip: July 16 ($133 risked) 

• Race 8: $20 Win on #7 Bustin Away.
• Race 9, Lake George Stakes: $20 on #4 Lavender Disaster.
• Race 10, Jim Dandy Stakes: $15 Win-Place on #3 Mo Plex for a $30 total bet. $5 Exacta box (3,5) for a $10 total bet.
• Race 11: $10 Win on #3 Off Script. $10 Win on #6 Nonna Lynne. $5 Exacta box (3,6) for a $10 total bet.
• Race 12: $15 Win on #10 Hedge The Risk.
• Late $0.50 ‘Pick 5’ for Races 8-12: Leg 1 (7) | Leg 2 (4,8) | Leg 3 (3,5) | Leg 4 (3,6) | Leg 5 (7,10) for an $8 total bet.

Race 8: $95,000 Allowance, 4:28 p.m. ET post time 

Ten horses on a six-furlong dirt track for three-year-olds and upward. 

#7 Bustin Away (10-1). There is no way Bustin Away closes at this price. He went off as the favorite in his previous four races with three wins and a second. Bustin Away broke his maiden in his debut and first and only race in Saratoga two summers ago and is 1-1 in his two races at this distance. The only time he didn't finish first or second was in his only race on turf. 

Race 9: Grade 3 Lake George Stakes, 5:04 p.m. ET post time 

Ten horses on a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile Inner Turf course for three-year-old fillies with a $175,000 purse. 

Originally, I was betting #10 Playing With Fire to win and singling her in my Late Pick 5, until she was scratched this morning. Now, I'm pivoting to the second betting choice, #4 Lavender Disaster (5-2), who finished third in the Wild Applause in Saratoga earlier this month, behind Playing With Fire and the first betting choice, #5 Classic Q (2-1). 

Lavender Disaster has "tactical speed," whereas Classic Q runs faster at the start and slows down at the end. In fact, Classic Q has finished fourth and seventh in her only two races longer than one mile. Since there is a dropoff from the three aforementioned horses to the rest of the field, all Lavender Disaster needs to do is outrun Classic Q. 

Race 10: Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes, 5:41 p.m. ET post time 

Five horses on a one-and-one-eighth-mile dirt track for three-year-olds with a $500,000 purse. 

#3 Mo Plex (10-1). I hit Race 8 last week at The Spa based on the logic I'm applying in the Jim Dandy: Betting a horse that differs from his rivals. Coming off a win in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, his first race longer than a mile, Mo Plex is the only horse in this field with "early speed," so the added distance didn't hurt him. 

Granted, Mo Plex will need to run faster to win the Jim Dandy, but maybe he'll be able to save something for the final stretch if the other horses aren't challenging him early. He's run faster in three consecutive races, and if Mo Plex takes another step forward, he'll be running fast enough to win the Jim Dandy, or at least hit the board. 

#5 Sovereignty (2-5). To be clear, I'm investing in Mo Plex due to his price, not because he is the best horse in this field. That distinction goes to Sovereignty, the best three-year-old in the world, who won the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and the Belmont Stakes in Saratoga. 

Maybe this is a chicken-sh*t move, but I'm using the #5 in my Late Pick 5 and an Exacta Box with the #3, in case Sovereignty is just too good for this field. Hopefully, a Sovereignty win and a Mo Plex second are a big enough payout to offset my win-place bets on the latter. Yet, Saratoga is the "Graveyard of Champions," and Mo Plex is 2-0 at The Spa. 

Race 11: $90,000 Maiden Special Weight Race, 6:16 p.m. ET post time 

Ten horses on a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile Mellon Turf Course for three-year-old fillies and mares and upward. 

#3 Off Script (9-2). Irad Ortiz has won several "Best Jockey" titles at Saratoga and leads all jockeys in earnings in this meet. Also, Off Script's connections must be confident since this is her first race on turf, and she's jumping up in class after running in a $32,000 Maiden race on dirt her last time out. 

#6 Nonna Lynne (6-1). This will only be her third race and second this year, but trainer Chad Brown "prints money" on the Saratoga turf. Brown has earned nearly double the closest trainer at Saratoga so far this summer, and Nonna Lynne has by far the fastest "late speed" in this two-turn race. 

Race 12: $55,000 Maiden Claiming Race, 6:16 p.m. ET post time 

Nine horses on a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile on the inner turf course for three-year-olds and upward. 

#10 Hedge The Risk (9-2). This is a tough race to handicap because none of these horses have won before. But, Hedge The Risk has a few brothers on his father's side (Constitution) with graded stakes victories, including Mindframe, who is 5-2-0 in seven career starts with two Grade 1 wins this summer, and finished second in the 2024 Belmont Derby. 

Plus, he has outstanding connections with Saratoga natives as the trainer (Brown) and jockey (Dylan Davis), and Klaravich Stables as the owner. Hedge The Risk ran one of the fastest speeds in this field in his first turf race last time out. Finally, if there is anyone I'd trust to move a horse from the dirt to the Saratoga turf, it's Brown. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my Saratoga Race Course picks during the 2025 summer meet here.