Saturday At 'The Spa' Saratoga July 19 Picks Include Three Graded Stakes Races

Clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s are in the weather forecast on Saturday, so most of the entries at the Saratoga Race Course should run, unlike last week, when rain forced turf races onto dirt tracks, leading to scratches. Horse racing is a "rain or shine" sport, but the best trainers usually scratch their turf horses once the race is moved to dirt. 

Nevertheless, the best thoroughbreds and trainers in the sport race at The Spa Saturdays, and July 19 is no different. Featured are the Grade 3 Caress Stakes, the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, and the Grade 2 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes. Enough of this jibber-jabber, let's go to the betting window. 

Saratoga Race Course Bet Slip: July 19 ($102 risked) 

• Race 8: $10 Win-Place on #5 Navy Seal for a $20 total bet.
• Race 9: $5 Win-Place on #3 Twirling Queen for a $10 total bet and $5 Exacta Box (3,7) for a $10 total bet.
• Race 10: $20 Win on #3 Scottish Lassie. 
• Race 11: $20 Win on #8 Nakatomi.
• $0.50 'Pick 5' for Races 8-12: Leg 1 (5,8) | Leg 2 (3,7) | Leg 3 (3) | Leg 4 (8) | Leg 5 (1-7, 9-12) for a $22 total bet

Race 8: $110,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 4:29 p.m. ET post time 

Nine horses on the one-and-three-eighth-mile inner turf course for three-year-olds and upward. 

#5 Navy Seal (8-1). He is the only horse with "tactical speed" in this race, while most of the field has "late speed". Maybe he gets out to a lead, saves some speed for the final stretch since the other horses aren't challenging early. Plus, I like betting horses who are different from their rivals, especially at a good price. Navy Seal finished second in his only race on the Saratoga turf last summer. 

Race 9: Grade 3 Caress Stakes, 5:04 p.m. ET post time 

Nine horses on the five-and-a-half-furlong Mellon Turf Course for three-year-olds and upward fillies and mares with a $175K purse. 

#3 Twirling Queen (12-1). She’s won three of her five races on the turf, two of three from this 5.5-furlong distance, and one of two sprints at Saratoga, including the Coronation Cup on the Saratoga turf last summer, her fastest career race (92 Beyer Speed Figure). Twirling Candy is bred for the Saratoga, as well. 

She has two sisters on her father’s side, Ag Bullet and Concrete Rose, who’ve won on the Saratoga turf. Ag Bullet won the Grade 1 Jaipur at The Spa last month. Concrete Rose is 2-0 at Saratoga and had four graded stakes wins on turf in 2018-19. 

#7 Future Is Now (7-2). The most consistent horse in this field, nine of her last 10 Beyers have been from 92-99, and she has made the trifecta in all nine with six wins. This is a 5.5-furlong sprint, and Future Is Now is tied with the betting favorite, #6 Pipsy, for the fastest early speed in this field. 

She lost to Pipsy in the Grade 2 Intercontinental as the betting favorite at Saratoga last month, breaking her three-race win streak, including two graded races. Lastly, Future Is Now has hit the trifecta in all four of her races at The Spa, with two wins, one second, and a show. 

Race 10: Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, 5:38 p.m. ET post time 

Four horses on a one-and-one-eighth-mile dirt track for three-year-old fillies and mares with a $500K purse. 

#3 Scottish Lassie (9-2). Her sire (dad), McKinzie, fathered Baeza and Chancer McPatrick, who are both elite three-year-old dudes. Baeza has run three straight 100+ Beyers in Grade 1 races and finished third in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes in Saratoga this summer. Chancer McPatrick won the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga in September 2024. 

Furthermore, Scottish Lassie's 90 Beyer in her win as a two-year-old at the Grade 1 Frizzette last October is the fastest speed of any horse in this field. Lastly, she finished third in the Grade 1 Acorn on a sloppy Saratoga dirt track last month and third as the betting favorite at Saratoga in her first race last September. 

Race 11: Grade 2 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes, 6:13 p.m. ET post time 

Six horses on a six-furlong dirt track for four-year-olds and upward with a $400K purse. 

I'm going to "buy low" on #8 Nakatomi (9-2), who went off at $4.60 in his win at this race last year. He finished third in the Grade 3 True North at Saratoga last summer, behind #5 Book'Em Danno (5-2) and #4 Mullikin (7-2). Yet, Nakatomi tied for his fastest Beyer (105) at the 2024 Alfred Vanderbilt, which is also tied for the second-fastest race by any horse in this field. 

Race 12: $110,000 Allowance, 6:46 p.m. ET post time 

Eleven horses on a seven-furlong dirt track for three-year-olds and upward. 

This is a tough race to handicap, and I used one horse for two legs, so I'm going to pick every horse in this race to close the Pick 5. I like the morning-line favorite, #6 Stars And Stripes (7-5), but Saratoga is the "Graveyard for Champions". Granted, that was a win at The Spa last summer, and tied for the fastest in this field. Still, I'm going to be cautious whilst gambling with the Pick 5.  

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my Saratoga Race Course picks during the 2025 summer meet here.