Spurs, Victor Wembanyama Will Continue To Be Thunder's Kryptonite Tuesday

Tuesday is a rare occasion when the NBA has a good game on a non-football day, when the San Antonio Spurs (27-12) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (33-7). This will be their fourth of five meetings. Usually, teams play at most four times in a season, but we get another Spurs-Thunder game because they met in the 2025 NBA Cup semifinals earlier this season. 

OKC would still be on pace to win 70+ games if it didn't have to play San Antonio, which is 3-0 in their head-to-heads. The Spurs have beaten the Thunder at home, on a neutral floor (the NBA Cup semifinals and finals were in Las Vegas), and in Oklahoma City. San Antonio has a +12.3 scoring margin in those games. 

The Thunder are still winning games, but aren't covering spreads. They are 7-3 straight up over their last 10 games compared to 3-7 against the spread (ATS), including five consecutive ATS losses. The Spurs have covered three straight games but blew a 19-point lead in a 104-103 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in their previous outing. 

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder Odds (DraftKings) 

Subject to change. Updated: 12:40 p.m. ET, Tuesday, January 13. 

• Moneyline: San Antonio (+270) | Oklahoma City (-340)
• Spread: SPURS +8.5 (-105) | Thunder -8.5 (-115)
• Total — 229.5 — Over (-112) | Under (-108)

Honestly, I feel like this is a "sucker play," but I'm still taking the points with San Antonio. Per Pregame.com, roughly 75% of the money is on the Spurs at the time of writing, yet, the Thunder has gone from -6.5 favorite to the current odds. I'm dismissing this line movement because I've gotten "closing line value" in the NBA over the past two seasons, and I'm down money. 

San Antonio neutralizes OKC's three biggest strengths: Forcing turnovers, getting to the foul line, and athleticism. The Spurs are sixth in offensive turnover rate, third in points per game allowed off turnovers, and first in defensive FT/FGA rate. Oklahoma City physically overwhelms most teams, but not San Antonio.

San Antonio Spurs All-Star Victor Wembanyama dunking on Oklahoma City big Chet Holmgren. (Photo credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images)

Also, the Thunder's half-court offense is suspect if they aren't getting to the charity stripe. They are averaging 15.7 free-throw attempts in their three games vs. the Spurs, but OKC averages 24.4 free-throw attempts on the season. Essentially, it's easier to play perimeter defense when you have the best defensive player in the world, Victor Wembanyama, protecting the paint. 

Lastly, this matchup means a little more to Wemby. After beating Oklahoma City on Christmas, Wembanyama told reporters: "You don't lose to a team three times in a row, in a short span, without them being better than you". Thunder big Chet Holmgren is considered Wemby's contemporary, but Chet is scoring 11.3 points per game on 40.7% shooting vs. San Antonio this season. 

Prediction: Thunder 114, Spurs 112

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