Rush To The Window With These Rushing Props

49ers vs. Chiefs, 6:30 ET

The Super Bowl is getting closer and closer. When that happens, my money gets more and more tied up. That's fine though, I set aside a portion of my bankroll because I love betting on the Super Bowl. Very rarely do I put the same unit size on all plays, but I like to give out the plays that I've found or the leans that I have so that it might help you make a bit of cash on the Super Bowl. A couple of years ago, I gave out Odell Beckham Jr. to score the first touchdown and that cashed at +900. There won't be any of those in this article, but I'm excited to share some rushing props on the game and how I think you should bet them.

Let's get this out of the way: the Chiefs rushing defense is not very good. They can get after the quarterback when the opponent tries to throw, but you can run on them. The 49ers have the best running back in the game and arguably the best in the National Football League in Christian McCaffrey. This is his game. If they don't feed him the ball, they will absolutely lose the game. They might lose anyway, but McCaffrey running the ball gives them the best chance to win this game. On the season, he has averaged 5.5 yards per carry this season. He has had 37 total carries in the playoffs, gotten four touchdowns, averaged 5.1 yards per carry, and gone for 90 or more yards each game. He is listed at 91.5 yards for this one, which may be a high total, but I certainly wouldn't take his under. He's played in 18 games this season, and he has gone over this total in 11 of them. The other running back is Elijah Mitchell, and I am shocked at how low his rushing total is. At some point, McCaffrey will be tired. Mitchell should get at least three carries in this game. He didn't play in the Packers game, but he was able to get four carries against the Lions and ran for seven yards and a touchdown. He is listed at just 3.5 yards for his rushing total. I am going to take the over on this. Can you guarantee he sees the field? Absolutely not, but there are more ways for this to cash than ways for him to not cash. I love this play. There is one other rusher that we can look at - Deebo Samuel. Samuel is incorporated into the running game, and I think the 49ers will try to use him for some misdirection or "trick" plays. Samuel is at just 16.5 rushing yards in the game, but he has gone over this total only five times this season. He had three rush attempts against the Lions and only got seven yards on those carries. I'd stay off this but lean toward the over. 

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco carries the ball vs. the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Then you can examine the quarterback, Brock Purdy. Purdy isn't really someone I look at as a great rusher, but he will scramble when needed. He's run 11 times this season and has accumulated 62 yards on the ground. His total is just 12.5 yards for the Super Bowl. I really don't have a play on this one. I don't think he will run, but it is possible he scrambles and gains what he needs on one rush. He's only gone over this total in six of his games this season (including the two from the playoffs). The under is probably the right side on this, but you're basically playing a coin toss here.

The Chiefs running game will face a much harder battle going up against the 49ers rush defense. San Francisco ranked fifth in the regular season and allowed just 97 yards to opponents per game. They did allow 182 yards to the Lions backfield in the last game, but the bread and butter of Detroit was their running game. That's not really the direction the Chiefs have to go, but they do tend to take what is given to them. Isiah Pacheco is the primary running back for the Chiefs. He has been solid this season and in the playoffs. Overall, he has averaged four yards per carry in the playoffs. He struggled in the last game against Baltimore, and their rush defense isn't as good as San Francisco. His rushing total in this one is 66.5 and he has gone over that in all three playoff games. I do think he can get over this total as the Chiefs are not likely to abandon the run. The only issue is if they fall far behind in the game and have to throw the ball more. I will say, this is pretty close to as high as I would play his over. If it were 70.5 for example, I'd probably say the under is a better look. I'd be a bit cautious with this. The other running back for the Chiefs is Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH), and unlike Mitchell, I don't have much faith he can get over his low total. CEH is listed at just 6.5 yards, but he seems to have fallen out of favor with the Chiefs and doesn't get many opportunities. He's only had 10 carries this playoff run and seven came in their comfortable win over Miami. If you take out his long runs of the playoffs, he has four yards in his last two games combined. Obviously, it wouldn't take a big run to get over the total, but I'd pass or play the under. Patrick Mahomes is always a threat to scramble and try to make something happen with his legs. He has only gone over his number of 26.5 rushing yards once in the playoffs. He has carried the ball 14 times though. I think the line is fair, but I'd lean toward the under. 

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