Running Game Bets For Super Bowl LIX

Chiefs vs. Eagles, 6:30 ET

Chiefs vs. Eagles, 6:30 ET

There won't be a lack of Super Bowl coverage. It is, without a doubt, the biggest bet on game of the year. I plan on having at least one article per day about the Super Bowl and different thoughts to bet on it. Why does this game get more bets? Is it us forcing something or are these legitimate plays? The reason it gets so many bets is because there are so many available to be made. The market has so many things to look at, but in this article I am just going to focus on running back bets. 

Eagles 

The Eagles have the best running back in the game with Saquon Barkley in the backfield. He was able to run for over 2,000 yards in the regular season and the postseason has been outstanding for him. In the playoffs, he has had 66 carries for 442 yards and five touchdowns. He didn't face impressive defenses doing it, but it is hard to say he wouldn't excel against a good defense either. In games against top-10 defenses against the rush this season, he ran the ball for just 65 yards on 19 carries against the Steelers, 107 yards on 23 carries against the Ravens, and 84 yards on 10 carries against the Buccaneers. He did face the Packers twice as well with 24 carries in the first game for 109 yards, and 25 rushes for 119 yards in the playoff game. So that is five games to give us a sample against considering the Chiefs are slightly worse than the Packers in the defensive ranks against the un. In those five games, he also scored four total touchdowns. Three of those came in the first game of the season against the Packers. The reason I bring this up is because Barkley to score a touchdown is -190. I think the Eagles will give him every opportunity considering this is his first Super Bowl, and he's the best player on the team, but I really don't like this bet. His line of 113.5 yards is actually fair as well, and I won't bet on that. I do think he will get over 22.5 carries. He averages 21.6 carries per game this season and the best way to keep the Chiefs from winning again is to keep the ball away from Mahomes. Each time the Eagles get the ball, I expect Barkley to get five touches. They should get the ball at least five or six times and that, to me, gives him more than enough opportunities to get over the total. Part of Barkley's biggest strength is breaking these big runs. Against those top-10 teams, he had runs of 34, 59, 25, 22, and 17 as the longest. His number is 25.5 for this one. I have to imagine the Chiefs are going to sell out to stop the run in this game and make Hurts beat them through the air. James Cook had a 33-yard rush against them in the AFC Championship, and CJ Stroud ran for 28 yards in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. I think Jalen Hurts is a better bet to go over his 12.5 longest rush and will play that as I think he is likely to scramble for a good amount and nice gain in this one. I actually prefer him for a touchdown as well. 

Chiefs

The Chiefs don't have an amazing running back, but they have a good two-headed attack with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco. The Eagles were a slightly worse rushing defense than the Chiefs this season, but still a top-10 defense. Hunt has been the primary back in both of the playoffs games. Patrick Mahomes has also done a great job of running the ball in the two games, carrying the ball for 57 yards total and two touchdowns. Hunt has run the ball a total of 25 times and accumulated 108 yards and two touchdowns. Pacheco has only gotten 10 total carries and 30 yards. Hunt's rushing yardage is fairly low at 45.5 and I think the over makes a lot of sense for him. With how infrequently Pacheco has been used his line of 21.5 seems too high. There are also markets for both Mahomes and Xavier Worthy. I wouldn't be surprised to see Worthy in some sort of mixture to get the ball in his hands, but I would lean toward the under on his 6.5 rushing yards. Mahomes is the hardest for me to judge. He's been scrambling really well in the playoffs, and he should get space as the Eagles do whatever they can to keep him from hurting them with his arm. I think it is better to take over his 6.5 attempts than it is to take a play on his yards. If the Chiefs are winning with the ball late, we may get two or three "rushes" as kneel-downs. I think Isiah Pacheco under 8.5 for longest run is a lock. He's more of a 3rd down back at this point, so I prefer to take the under. With Hunt, I'm a bit uncertain on his longest rush. He's certainly capable of 11.5 on a run, but I think you're going to be sweating it. 

Overall, there are a lot of options to bet, but here is what my official card will be:

  • Barkley over 22.5 rush attempts
  • Jalen Hurts longest rush over 12.5 yards
  • Isiah Pacheco longest rush under 8.5 yards
  • Kareem Hunt over 45.5 rush yards
  • Xavier Worthy under 6.5 rushing yards
  • Mahomes over 6.5 rush attempts