Running It Back With Two More Best Bets For MLB Saturday After 2-0 Friday

Despite my best judgment, which is to avoid gambling on regular-season MLB since it's so random, I'm a man of my word, and I'm hitting the diamond again after cashing both best bets Friday. I'm 17-10 this season with a +29.2% return on investment, so maybe my "hit-and-run" baseball betting strategy is sharp. Let's see if my luck has already run out with two looks for Saturday's slate.  

MLB Betting Card: June 28 

• Miami Marlins moneyline (+136), down to +110, at Arizona Diamondbacks via FanDuel, risking 1 unit (u).
• Houston Astros moneyline (-120), up to -130, vs. Chicago Cubs via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.15u.

Marlins (35-45) at Diamondbacks (41-40), 4:10 p.m. ET 

Season Series: 

• Arizona leads 3-1. Miami won the series opener Friday, 9-8.

Current Form: 

• The Marlins have won seven of their last 10 games, including five straight.
• The DBacks are 5-5 over their last 10.

Starters 

• Miami RHP Sandy Alcántara (4-8, 6.69 ERA). This is Alcántara's first start vs. the DBacks this season.
• Arizona RHP Brandon Pfaadt (8-5, 5.49 ERA). He beat the Marlins 6-2 April 16, allowing 1 ER on a solo home run with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks.

Alcántara is having his worst season in the majors after missing last year with an injury. But, he is 2-1 in June with a 2.74 ERA in four outings with three "quality starts" (6.0+ innings pitched with 3 or fewer earned runs). Alcántara has a 30.8% K-rate and .167 batting average in 52 plate appearances vs. active Diamondbacks, per Statcast. 

His 4.70 Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") is better than Pfaadt's 5.14 FIP. That stat is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control. Also, Alcántara's 108 Stuff+ ranks 19th among starting pitchers, while Pfaadt's 97 Stuff+ is 89th, according to FanGraphs. 

Finally, Arizona's bullpen has a worse ERA, FIP, and WAR, and Miami's lineup has been raking this past week. Per FanGraphs, the Marlins are top-5 in WAR, wRC+, wOBA, and hard-hit rate over that span. 

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Cubs (48-34) at Astros (49-33), 8:15 p.m. ET 

Season Series: 

• Houston won the season opener 7-4 Friday.

Current Form: 

• Chicago is 4-6 in its last 10 games.
• The Astros have won eight of their last 10, including five in a row.

Starters 

• Cubs RHP Colin Rea (4-3, 4.42 ERA).
• Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (1-2, 4.91 ERA).

Houston has a clear edge in the pitching matchup. Rea has given up 11 home runs over his last seven starts and 6+ ERs in three of his past five outings. McCullers' basic numbers look worse than Rea's, but McCullers has a better Stuff+ (103-96), according to FanGraphs, and FIP (4.77-4.24). 

More importantly, the Astros have the best bullpen FIP and WAR in the majors. Two of their three best relievers didn't pitch Friday, and All-Star closer Josh Hader only threw three pitches. Lastly, Houston has the second-best home record in baseball, and McCullers has a better winning percentage (68.3-51.2%), ERA (4.26-2.92), and WHIP (1.401-1.136) at home historically. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.