Rivalry Will Start Off With Offensive Bang

Red Sox vs. Yankees, 7:15 ET

It is a travel day today so we don't have quite as many games on the slate today, but we do have a few very important ones. This is also not rivalry week or anything like that, but we do get two teams that have had a storied history. Although there is a more balanced schedule where all teams play each other, teams are still facing their division rivals constantly. In today's contest, we get the series opener between the Red Sox and Yankees, with both looking to find their way into the playoffs.

The Red Sox are a team that I mentioned we should probably bet against making the playoffs around the trade deadline. I just didn't feel like the team had enough on their roster to make it work. Their offense was fine, but the starting pitching left a bit to be desired. They've had some arms turn around their season, which has made a major difference. They seem to have also made an addition by subtraction - trading away Rafael Devers earlier in the year. As of right now the Red Sox are in third place in the East, and if the playoffs started today, they would be in as a Wild Card team. That arm that I mentioned who has turned his season around, is attached to Lucas Giolito. For the year, Giolito is 8-2 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has been slightly better on the road than at home this season, but I wouldn't call it significant. He hasn't faced the Yankees this season, and overall they are just 11-for-43 against him. I do think it is worth pointing out that Paul Goldschmidt is just 1-for-9 against him in his career.

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - MAY 13: Alex Bregman #2 of the Boston Red Sox looks on against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on May 13, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

The Yankees are making the New York fans a bit nervous. After a very hot start to the season and them being in control of the division for a good portion of the year, they now look like it could be a fight to the finish for a playoff spot. Again, if the playoffs started today, you would see the Yankees make the playoffs as the top Wild Card team. They probably won't win the division, and they do have quite a few teams chasing them at the moment. The good news for the Yankees at the moment is that they are playing their best baseball in quite some time. They have won their past five games and their offense looks great. They have scored 43 runs over the past five games. Tonight they send out Luis Gil to the mound. Gil has only made three starts this season, and he has allowed eight earned runs in 14 innings. His best start of the three did come at home with him allowing two earned runs over 5.1 innings. It also helped that he only issued one walk as opposed to the three or more he issued in the other two games. Red Sox hitters haven't done much against him, going 4-for-28 over his career. 

There are a few thoughts I have on the outcome of this game. I like the way that Giolito is throwing the ball, and Gil probably is better off at home than he is on the road. I think you are getting some value on the Red Sox tonight as they are plus money, but the Yankees are on a heater - or at least were. They were on the road, though so things can change when you head home. The first three games between these two in June saw a ton of runs. Even though there is a lot of playoff implications here, I think this game will see the offenses light up the scoreboards. I'm backing the over in this one.

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