Ride The Lightning To Stop The Avalanche
Avalanche vs. Lightning, 7:00 ET
I've killed it in baseball in the past. I've been really good in college hoops this year. Football had its fair share of ups and downs in both college and pros. Hockey… hockey hasn't been good at all this season. I mean there was a stretch where I was at least decent, but the vast majority have been losers and it has been a struggle. Last season was shockingly good, something like 65% winners. Maybe this is just balancing out. Either way, I want to try and get a win in the game between the Avalanche and the Lightning.
Colorado comes into the game as one of the better teams in the league. They are sitting in second place of the Central Division with a record of 33-17-4. Most of their struggles have been on the road this season. They are only 13-12-4 on the road which means they are 20-5 at home. Those are pretty drastic splits. They are led by Nathan MacKinnon who has already put up 87 points and leads the team in goals and assists. The team is currently in the last game of a six-game road trip. The Avalanche are just 1-4 in the five games they've played and they have to be looking forward to getting back home after this trip. The Avalanche have one of the best offenses in hockey and should make it tough on a team that is fairly average on defense (the Lightning). They are scoring on roughly 24% of Power Play opportunities, but that is one area the Lightning are pretty successful at stopping their opponent. Tonight, I think the Avalanche will have Alexandar Georgiev in the net. He's been good this season and was really good against the Lightning the first time they played earlier in the season. In that game, Georgiev stopped 38 of 39 shots he faced. I don't expect the same success tonight.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JANUARY 18: Cale Makar #8 of the Colorado Avalanche shoots the puck during the second period against the Boston Bruins at TD Garden on January 18, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by China Wong/NHLI via Getty Images)
The Lightning are also one of the better teams in the NHL and are in third place within the Atlantic Division. Similarly to the Avalanche they have drastic home/road splits. The benefit for them is they are significantly better at home and play there tonight. Tampa Bay has a record of 29-20-5 overall and are 17-5-3 at home this season. Also like the Avalanche, they have one guy leading them in points, goals, and assists. On this squad it is Nikita Kucherov. He is the engine that makes this team run. This is the first home game for the Lightning after coming home from a four-game road trip. It was a successful trip for them as they split the games 2-2. On the season, they are scoring 3.39 goals per game and have averaged slightly less than that over the past five games. I mentioned that they are successful defensively against the Power Play, but on offense they are even better. When they have a Power Play, they are scoring on 30.7% of attempts. The Avalanche don't have the best defense in the world, but they are doing well short-handed and limiting opponents' success when they have the advantage. They will likely have Andrei Vasilevskiy in the net tonight. He's been great on the season with only 2.76 goals allowed per game and a .903 save percentage. He was in the net the first time they played the Avalanche and allowed three goals on 22 shots.
I think the Lightning get their revenge tonight. I know that the Avalanche probably want to win this game to make this road trip a little bit better and more acceptable. However, the Lightning at home are generally a good bet. I also think that they might have the better goalie in this game. The teams actually match up fairly well and are more offensive focused so I'd think the over is a decent bet. However, my play here will be on the Lightning to win the game.
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