Ride Pitchers Current Form To This Run Line Play

Marlins vs. Cubs, 2:20 ET

I originally published this article yesterday, but after a rainout the schedule was shifted. It really doesn't matter, in this case, just like I did with the Opening Day play on the Brewers, I bet it. So, once again, I am putting this play on the Cubs vs. Marlins. This is for game 2 and it is important to note, I am playing this with the intention of requiring that Shota Imagana starts. If they switch him to start game one, I'll play game 1 instead with him. Why the ambiguity? Well, when I write these, I am trying to give them to you with ample time to place your bet. I'm leaving the rest of the article the same, but keep in mind that the Marlins may start someone different than Jesus Luzardo against Imagana. I don't care. I'll still take the run line for the Cubs with Imagana on the mound. 

As far as picks for worst team in baseball, I had the Marlins on the list, but I can't say I expected them to be this bad. There is still a ton of baseball to play, but being 10+ games under .500 through your first 20ish games of the season is not a pretty sight. The team is doing very little effectively with a team batting average of around .215 and scoring around 3.5 runs per game. They haven't won more than one game in a row this season, and have lost every series they've played in. The hitting is pretty pathetic, but the pitching isn't much better. So far, the club has an ERA over 4.75 as a team and is allowing 1.5 hits+walks per inning. If you're putting on three baserunners every two innings, chances are likely that someone will score. Today they have Jesus Luzardo throwing for them and he needs to get back on track in a hurry. Luzardo was solid last year and in 2022 after he was traded to the Marlins from one of the other worst teams in baseball, the Athletics. This season has been ugly through four starts as he now has a 7.65 ERA. He has allowed 15 earned runs in 15 innings this month and hitters have put four balls over the fence. Cubs hitters haven't had a ton of success against Luzardo, going just 10-for-44. 

Feb 25, 2024; Jupiter, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2) singles against the Washington Nationals in the second inning at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

The Cubs are off to a strong start, but the question is if they are going to keep it up this season or if they will hover around .500. Their offense has looked pretty good this season, and they put together a nice road trip against the Mariners and Diamondbacks. It would be nice for them to be able to keep that momentum as they have this homestand against the Marlins. They didn't get a day off yesterday - like they normally do on Thursday - so they could potentially struggle a bit in this series, but this Marlins team is so bad that you can't count on them to make a tough game for anyone. Today, the Cubs get their offseason addition, Shota Imanaga, taking the ball. Imanaga has been better than advertised so far as he has gone 15.1 innings and allowed no earned runs this season. In fact, he has only allowed nine hits and two walks which is good for a 0.72 WHIP. I think that he should be able to navigate this struggling Marlins lineup as well. It would be fairly typical, in my opinion, for them to be the team he gives up a ton of runs to. That's more me being cynical than logical though. 

I think the play here is to ride the trends. Imanaga will eventually give up runs, and teams will probably figure out his stuff. However, the Marlins are in a funk and don't seem like they are getting out of it any time soon. Luzardo is on the other side of that. Sure, he has had to face some difficult opponents, but that doesn't mean he will snap out of it. The Cubs are fairly strong offensively and not the easiest team to deal with, especially if they are patient. I'll back the Cubs on the run line in this one. 

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