Reds Will Struggle Against Red Sox's Crochet

Reds vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET

I hope everyone had a nice weekend, and are ready to kick some butt this week at whatever you do. The month of June was not spectacular for me in a betting aspect, but I did well outside of betting. Life is about balance. There are very few people - even professional athletes - who are always great or at their peak in their game. Always remember to weather the storm, live to bet another day, and protect that bankroll. Limit the losses and maximes the opportunities. That's pretty much with everything in life, and it is no different here as the Reds take on the Red Sox.

The Reds are surprisingly good this season. They aren't lighting the world on fire or something, but they are above .500 and have some fairly impressive team statistics. Let's take a look at where they rank this year. They are tied with the Red Sox and Athletics for 12th in the league with a .248 batting average as a club. They have 91 homers as a team and that ranks 14th in the league. As far as runs scored, they have cracked the top-10 there with 387 runs, but they are tenth. The pitching staff is fairly similar in terms of rankings. They currently have a collective team ERA of 3.82, which is 14th in the league. Their WHIP is at 1.22 which is good for eighth in the league. They are fifth for batting average against. These numbers all indicate to me that they are probably where they should be for the season, but it is possible they could still improve. Today, they have Chase Burns taking the mound. He comes in, making his second career start. He went five innings and allowed three earned runs in his debut against the Yankees. Burns did have eight strikeouts for the Reds and there are very high expectations for this righty. 

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Chase Burns (26) makes his MLB debut in the first inning of the MLB interleague game between the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Yankees at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Tuesday, June 24, 2025.

The Red Sox are surprisingly struggling this season. After trying to revamp the roster a bit in the offseason, the club hasn't really found their footing. Boston is three games under .500 for the year, and they have traded away arguably their best player. Sure, there were issues with the off-field stuff and Rafael Devers, but to see him shipped away was still somewhat surprising. History indicated it was likely he was going to move, but he was still productive for the team. Today they see their previously trade acquired player, Garrett Crochet, taking the mound. Crochet is 7-4 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP for the season. This month he has made five starts, and four of them saw him allow one or fewer earned runs. The other was a road loss to the Yankees where he allowed five earned runs in six innings, but the Red Sox still won the game. Reds hitters haven't seen much of him, and have only hit one double in ten at-bats. 

This is one of those games that should be a low-scoring battle between the two clubs. I don't expect Burns to be perfect today, but I don't expect him to give up a ton of runs. What I do expect is that Crochet should put together a great start. I think the Reds should be under 3.5 total runs today and I'm going to back that here. I do have a bit of a concern that the bullpen could allow some runs. However, I'm still taking the under 3.5. 

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