Red Wolves Or Bears: Which Team To Back In The Xbox Bowl

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State, 9:00 ET

In the Xbox Bowl, we get two teams that you probably haven’t watched all season. If we are being honest, I haven’t either. And, that’s okay. There are a lot of gamblers who will tell you watching games is where you learn things about teams, and they are right. There are also gamblers that tell you watching games is a waste of time when you can just take insights from the data, and they are right, too. Ultimately, it really doesn’t matter how you do it, you just have to find what works, and, more importantly, what cashes you some tickets. Let’s cash a ticket on the Xbox Bowl between the Missouri State Bears and the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

Missouri State comes into this game with a 7-5 record, but they are losers of their past two contests. They started the season with an absolutely drubbing at the hands of USC. They lost the game by 60 points, allowing the Trojans to do whatever they wanted. They had a nice rebound win the next week against a mediocre Marshall team. Then they lost to SMU 28-10, so not quite as bad as the loss to USC, but still not a great performance. They followed that with a win over UT Martin before losing to Western Kentucky. After five straight wins, they dropped their past two games, one at Kennesaw State, and then one hosting Louisiana Tech. They were at least competitive in both, but their defense couldn’t stop anyone. Their offense has been fairly impressive, but mistake-prone. Jacob Clark has thrown for almost 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns, but he also has 11 interceptions. 

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Missouri State Bears wide receiver Dash Luke (1) catches the ball against Southern California Trojans cornerback Marcelles Williams (25) and linebacker Matai Tagoa'i (44) in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Arkansas State is on the verge of a winning or losing season with the result of this game. They enter today with a 6-6 record, so obviously the outcome will dictate which way their season is viewed in the history books. Their season was a bit different as they started with an easy victory over Southeast Missouri State. Then they dropped the next four games. Three of them were on the road, and one was at home against a good Iowa State team. Iowa State was ranked 14th in the country at the time, and was only able to escape with a 24-16 victory. The Red Wolves followed the four-game losing streak with a four-game winning streak. The competition they faced in that stretch was probably a lot closer to their level. They dropped tow home games in a row to Southern Miss and Louisiana which were a bit surprising, but ended the season with a victory over App State. 

Another thing that you’ll hear a lot of gamblers talk about is the handle and line movement. The truth is that in big games, you can’t always take a lot away from those movements or changes, or even percentages. I won’t get into every detail a the moment, but specifically with the line movement, there aren’t going to be a ton of public or amateur bettors playing this game. This is a game for sharps, and the sharps are on the Missouri State side. I have to be honest, I’m not 100% sure what they are seeing. There is no announced opt-outs at the time of this writing. I feel like Arkansas State has been more competitive, more consistently. The Red Wolves opened at -2.5 favorites, and the line has swapped to Missouri State being the favorite. I am probably going to be wrong on this for the reasons I mentioned, but I’m taking Arkansas State. Missouri State has not been consistent enough to me, and I don’t think either of these teams are all that impressive. I’ll grab the points.