Red Sox Will Crush Corbin, Just Like Every Other Team Does

Nationals vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET

After three or four weeks of pure dominance, we’ve run into a bit of a stretch where I haven’t gotten the best results. I’m still up for the year, and looking to add more to the pile. Baseball isn’t the easiest sport to bet because you can get some very random performances, but that’s the case in every sport. Today, we are going to hope we can dodge that bad luck and variability. Tonight we put a play on a game between the Nationals and the Red Sox. 

The Nationals are a surprisingly good club this year. I was a bit shocked to see that they are sitting at .500 for the season. They were sellers last year at the trade deadline, and honestly, I’m not sure that the Nationals will be buyers at the deadline. Regardless, the Nationals traded away Juan Soto and Jeimer Candelario within the past two years, signaling what I thought was the start of a rebuild. The problem is that the team must not have gotten the memo. Washington is playing good, competitive baseball, even if that doesn’t mean that they will make the playoffs or anything this season. One guy that they can’t get rid of is Patrick Corbin. He’s been labeled as one of the worst signings in the history of baseball, and it is somewhat justified. Corbin is off to another bad year with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP this season. Corbin did just produce his best start of the season as he went six innings and allowed three earned runs against the Blue Jays. He has struggled on the road this season in four starts. In those outings, he has allowed 20 earned runs over 20.1 innings and all four of his home runs. Only Garrett Cooper has seen Corbin frequently, and he is 6-for-27. The other Red Sox hitters are collectively 4-for-12 against Corbin.

Apr 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin (46) throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Boston is a team that was also supposed to have a down year or one that they would at least struggle to find their footing. Now, going 19-18 through the first 40ish games of the season isn’t exactly something to brag about, but it is probably better than expected. As a club, they are hitting .244 and have scored 164 runs which is fairly average for the season. Those aren’t terrible or anything, and should be commended in a lot of ways. However, the real strong aspect of the team has been the pitching staff. The Red Sox pitchers are throwing to a tune of a 2.72 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Perhaps most impressive is they aren’t walking anyone with just 93 for the season, and holding hitters to a .224 batting average. Today they send out Tanner Houck, who has been magnificent so far this season. To this point in the campaign, he is 3-3 with a 1.99 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He has posted a quality start in six of his seven outings this year and should get a chance at another here against the Nationals. 

I actually think the Nationals could make this game competitive. However, the Red Sox bullpen, and pitching in general, are talented and might be able to keep Washington’s offense down. Patrick Corbin on the mound gives opponents a big advantage though. I’m going to take Boston’s team total in this situation. I think we can isolate the game to see that they will go over their 4.5 team total. 

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