Red Sox Can Steal Game From Yankees, Cole

Red Sox vs. Yankees, 1:05 ET

We've already celebrated one of the great American times with the 4th of July on Thursday. Now we get to celebrate another few of the best moments as we combine baseball and betting. But, it isn't just the fact that we are betting on baseball. We now also have the added wrinkle of putting one of the best combinations of teams and one of the most storied rivalries in the mix as the Red Sox head into New York to take on the Yankees. 

I am still amazed at the fact that the Red Sox haven't just folded. I read in some article recently that the expectation for this season was that the Red Sox would be sellers at the trade deadline, and the Cubs would be buyers. Why those two teams were chosen, I'm not quite sure, but the point was they had opposite expectations, and the Red Sox are significantly exceeding what people were expecting of them this year. Coming into this game, they've actually been better on the road than they have at home. Honestly, your guess is as good as mine as to why that is. Maybe teams save their best effort for Fenway Park and the rich tradition. Whatever the case may be, the Red Sox would be a sub-.500 squad if they didn't play road games this season. Today they wear the road gray uniforms and on the mound will be Josh Winckowski. He certainly has surpassed the expectations set upon him this season. For the year, Winckowksi has a 2-1 record with a 2.80 ERA, and a 1.39 WHIP. If I'm looking closely at this, the WHIP is higher than you'd expect for a guy with a 2.80 ERA. To me, that indicates that he is probably getting hit rather hard, or is allowing too many baserunners, but they aren't scoring. The problem is that if you tend to have traffic on bases, it usually catches up with you unless you're a strikeout pitcher. Winckowski has just 28 strikeouts in 35.1 innings this season. This will be just his fifth start of the year, but he has actually performed better as a starter than as a reliever. He hasn't faced the Yankees this season, but they are just 5-for-20 against him over their somewhat limited experience. 

New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is taken out of the game by manager Aaron Boone vs. the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)

The Yankees are having a complete turnaround from last season as they are finally hitting and pitching well. The club is hovering around 20 games over .500 for the campaign and look like a true threat to hoist a World Series trophy at the end of the season. Every year there is at least one really dominant team that has a great regular season and falls short. Sure, that could be the Yankees this year, but there are very few weaknesses on the team for a full campaign or for a playoff series. The club has talked about upgrading the bullpen a bit, or maybe getting some infield hitting help, but even if they don't make a move, they will be better than almost any other American League club. Aaron Judge is having another MVP-level season and Juan Soto is probably somewhere in the top-5 of voting as well. The team recently got healthier as Gerrit Cole returned to the rotation. Cole hasn't been very sharp in his return over two starts, but he's too good of a pitcher to be truly worried. He also is coming off of his best start since his return, going five innings, allowing one earned run on three hits and just one walk. I think this is probably the start where he gets to 100 pitches. The Red Sox hitters are rather familiar with him, hitting .247 with 20 hits in 81 at-bats. Look to add Rafael Devers to a home run prop as he is 12-for-38 against Cole with seven homers.

I think the Red Sox are actually in a good spot to steal this one. Cole is still in his first stretch of his return and even with as great of a pitcher as he is, the Red Sox have seen him enough times to know how to attack him. I think the best route here is to take the Red Sox through five innings. We need to hope that Winckowski can turn in another strong start, but this also gives us a chance for a push if the game is tied after five. Back Boston through five. 

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