Red-Hot Phillies Will Beat Down Slumping Blue Jays

Blue Jays vs. Phillies, 1:05 ET

I already discussed at length the losses I took in that Brewers vs. Royals game last night. Bad beats will happen, it is unavoidable, but these stung. The good news is that the night wasn't a complete loss as I did win the other play that I had. In that one Zac Gallen returned to form and was able to take the Reds down. The Diamondbacks ended up winning the full game and the first five innings, but either way, I won my play. Unfortunately what would've been a huge day turned into a frustrating one. We look to rebound - one of those great things about daily opportunities - in the game between the Blue Jays and the Phillies. 

This hasn't been a great start to the road trip for the Blue Jays as they have lost three of the four games to start the trip and are now just 8-13 on the road this season. In fact, over the past eight road games, they are just 2-6. If we are being a little more critical of them, they are not playing great baseball right now. They have lost 11 of their past 15 games. Yesterday they lost the game 10-1 to the Phillies. The game prior, they lost 11-8. In fact, the team has allowed six or more runs in four of the past five games. The offense in that same stretch scored six runs in their lone win, but three or fewer in three of the other four games. Hard to win games when you're giving up a lot of runs and scoring very little. Today, they turn to Chris Bassitt in hopes of turning this road trip around. That  might not be a good thing as Bassitt has a 5.45 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP this season. He's had three quality starts in his seven outings, but has also allowed at least four runs (not always earned) in all of his other starts, including all three on the road. The Phillies hitters are fairly familiar with Bassitt as he did spend a lot of time with the Mets. They are 23-for-86 against Bassitt with eight extra-base hits against him. 

Apr 26, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays staring pitcher Chris Bassitt (40) walks toward the dugout after being relieved against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the third inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies are the opposite of the Blue Jays right now. Toronto is struggling to get a lot done, but Philadelphia is on a  seven-game winning streak. Even more than that they've won 11 of their past 12 games, and are 18-3 over their past 21 games. That has catapulted them from being a .500 club to now being 15 games above. Quite the turnaround in a short period of time. The team is hitting very well lately, scoring 35 runs in their past four games, and 48 runs over the past seven games. They've only allowed 18 runs in that same seven-game stretch. The interesting thing about the winning streak, to me, is that they've only one four of the seven games by the run line. Today they get one of their better pitchers, Aaron Nola, on the mound. Nola has a 3.32 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP for the season, which are solid enough numbers and good for the second-best pitcher in the rotation. April was a very strong month for Nola as he allowed just eight earned runs over 35 innings. Home runs have been a bit of a problem for him this season as he has allowed seven already in 43.1 innings. If he can stop the longball, he should be good. Blue Jays hitters are 19-for-69 against the Phillies, with eight of the hits going for extra-bases.

I am not sure the Phillies will win this game, but there is very little indication that tells me the Blue Jays are going to snap out of this funk they are in. The books seem to think that the Phillies will win this one, as they have a -170 line. Despite having a +30 run differential over the past seven games, they've cover the run line in just four of the games. Still, with Nola vs. Bassitt, I think the Phillies should win this game by multiple runs. I'm taking the -1.5 in this one at +124.

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