Rays Hitters Can't Touch Fried

Rays vs. Yankees, 7:05 ET

We have the start of a lot of new series today. Thursday and Monday are typically the lightest days on the diamond for us sports bettors. To be honest, I'm not sure which I prefer - the days where we have everyone playing, or the days that we have a lighter schedule. I mean, more sports is more better, but at the same time, I really like the ability to spend even more time on each game. Today, I've found one I like between the Rays and the Yankees as they begin a battle in New York. 

The Rays are playing decent enough baseball, but nothing that is all that exciting. If you have watched them over the past decade, they basically always find a way to be a competitive club over the course of a season, despite not having a ton or resources. They are only around the .500 mark at the moment and with the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and, of course, Yankees, this is a very tough division. You can't be average and think you'll sneak into the playoffs as a division winner, at least not in the AL East. Today they send out Ryan Pepiot to the mound in hopes that he can be the guide for the team in at least winning this first battle against the Yankees toady. Pepiot is 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He has three quality starts already this season, including one against the Yankees. In that game against New York, he went six innings, allowed six hits, three earned runs, two homers, and struck out seven hitters. He has made just one road start this year, but it was a good one, going six innings against the Padres and allowing just one earned run. Overall, Yankees hitters are batting just .149 against Pepiot. 

Mar 28, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA;  Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot (44) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Yankees are coming off of an interesting offseason. On the one hand, they were in the World Series and that showed significant progress for the club over the past few years. Aaron Judge was/is fantastic and put together another MVP campaign. On the other hand, they lost one of the best young hitters in the game to a club that was just across town. Not exactly an ideal scenario for the Bronx Bombers, but they really haven't missed a beat. The offense has clicked, the players seem to have each other's back, and Judge, without Soto, is hitting over .400 for the season - that isn't a typo. He is batting .427 at the time of this writing. The only real question is why are pitchers still throwing to him? One huge addition to the team was Max Fried, tonight's starter. Fried has been fabulous since donning the pinstripes. He is 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. I've always enjoyed Fried and bet on him frequently with the Braves. He is typically very reliable, but can have a stinker every now and then. Rays hitters haven't been able to touch Fried - he is holding them to a .077 average over 39 at-bats.

I always like theses divisional battles. I think there is a lot to enjoy with them. The two teams know each other, you get a lot of data, and the intensity does usually feel a bit higher. The problem for this one is the Rays should be overmatched. I'm backing the Yankees through five on the run line here. Mostly, I just don't want to deal with bullpens. I think if you can find a reasonable under 4.5 you might want to take a shot on that as well through five, but my play is on the run line. 

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