Rays Can Beat Skenes And Poor Hitting Pirates

Pirates vs. Rays, 1:10 ET

It hasn't been a great return to baseball for me. In fact the sports betting plays for the last five to seven days have been pretty rough overall. It is like the exact opposite of most of the season. I'm doing really well in the NBA but terrible in everything else whereas I was doing terrible in the NBA and great with everything else for most of this season. Either way, I am going to get back on track here after a rough day yesterday. Let's get down to it as we put a play on the game between the Pirates and the Rays.

The Pirates are off to a very rough start. They are just 1-5 to start the season and lost three of four games against the Marlins to start the season and now are staring at a sweep at the hands of the Rays. It is fairly simple to see what is going on - the team is failing on both the offensive side and the pitching side. For the season, the team is hitting just .189 for the year. They also have a sub-.300 On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage. The team has lost four straight games and has scored seven runs in the past four games including being shut out yesterday. Today they send out what is likely to be their best chance at getting a win - Paul Skenes. Skenes had a good start to the season against the Marlins. He went 5.1 innings, struck out seven hitters and allowed just three hits. He did allow two earned runs in the game, but the bullpen blew it and the Marlins won 5-4. Given that he has only been in the majors for a half year, he doesn't have much experience against the Rays, but those with appearances against him are actually decent going 4-for-13.

Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes at Pirate City in Bradenton, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Rays are having a good start - is it as good as when they started the season 13-0 or whatever they went, of course not. However, the team is looking solid with a 4-1 record to kick off the year. I mentioned how terrible the Pirates are hitting, the Rays are not doing the same. They are hitting rather well actually with a .296 batting average for the year. To be fair to each team, though, the Rays have 48 hits and the Pirates have 38. Obviously there is a difference, but since there is such a small sample size, the bad numbers stand out. What has been most impressive for the Rays is their pitching staff. They are throwing to a 1.60 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. That's amazing, even over a five-game stretch. Any team that isn't walking hitters is going to have a chance to win a game, and they've allowed just three walks while striking out 56 hitters so far this season. Today they send out Ryan Pepiot to the hill to battle Skenes. He is lucky to have started his season against the Rockies and now the Pirates. He turned in a quality start for the first outing of the season, going six innings and allowing just one earned run. Pirates hitters also don't have much experience against him, and he has allowed four hits over 19 at-bats.

The total for this game is rather low, signaling that the expectation is this will be a low-scoring game. I can't say I disagree with it, both of these teams seem like they will be part of more under games than overs. I'm not going to play a total on this one though. I think a better thing is to play the hotter team. Skenes will position the Pirates to win, but they can't hit. Pepiot is actually a pretty solid pitcher and if we are looking at bullpens, Tampa's is better. Back Tampa to win this one.

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