Rays And Red Sox Should Break Out Bats

Rays vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET

It was a bit of a convoluted way to do it, but I did get back to the winning ways yesterday. What do I mean by that? Well, normally I give out two plays and I end up with only a few different types of outcomes - 2-0, 0-2, 1-1, etc. In this case, I post two articles, but split a play in one of the games. In the matchup with the Rangers and the Guardians, the teams combined for zero runs for most of the game before the Guardians broke free and scored seven in the late innings. In the first five, I expected the game to go over the total. That was a loss, but the other one was the Rangers to win after five. That was a push. So, I lost a half unit on the game but won on my other play so the day wasn't a disaster. I am hopeful that today we can see more success and not as much confusion about getting there with the Rays taking on the Red Sox. 

The Rays come into this matchup as a .500 ballclub. This doesn't seem like it will be one of the magical years for the Rays. To their credit, this team has done more with less than almost any team in recent history. I won't recap the last season, and all of the issues or changes that brought their club to this point. They are what you would consider a small market, but they make smart moves, utilize their resources well, and seem to get the most out of their players on a consistent basis. Living in the AL East where you have two teams that are normally willing to spend money (New York and Boston), a team with a fairly aggressive general manager (Toronto), and another club that was so bad for so long that their farm system is top notch (Baltimore) it is hard to carve out a niche for themselves. I guess we should be impressed that they are treading water and are an average club, but with how well they've performed recently, it does seem like a drop off. The reason is obvious - their pitching staff is terrible in comparison to what we received from them over the past few seasons. They now have a 4.40 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. The WHIP isn't exactly terrible, but the 4.40 ERA is too high for them. They don't really have an Ace this season after having multiple for years. Today they send out Aaron Civale, a talented, but not #1 type of guy. He had a stretch of three very poor starts before turning in a decent 4.2 innings against the White Sox where he allowed just two earned runs. The three starts prior he allowed 18 earned runs over 13.2 innings. Red Sox hitters have hit Civale well with eight hits in 21 at-bats. 

FT. MYERS, FLORIDA - MARCH 2: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox rounds the bases after hitting a double during the third inning of a Spring Training Grapefruit League game against the Washington Nationals on March 2, 2024 at jetBlue Park at Fenway South in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

Boston is not much better in terms of record at the moment. They are 21-20 for the season and aren't better at home than they are on the road. The Red Sox are performing better than I expected though. They are not an offensive juggernaut or anything, but they play good enough baseball. Their offense matches up eerily similarly to the Rays. On the season, they are hitting .243 and have scored 175 runs, this is almost the exact same production that the Rays have put out. Frankly, the Red Sox might be underperforming though. Their pitching staff has a 2.80 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. The only real explanation I can think of for the team is that they are playing in a ton of close games which is why they have the average record. If they are pitching that well, and allowing only a few runs, the offense can't be putting enough on the board to use what the staff is giving them. Nick Pivetta is taking the ball today. He hasn't been great, but hasn't been terrible either. He has a 1-2 record and a 3.60 ERA for the season with a 1.13 WHIP. This is on;y his fourth start of the season. In his first start since his return from injury, he allowed five earned runs over four innings. He did surrender three home runs in that game. Rays hitters are hitting .299 against him over 97 at-bats. 

The offenses of both of these teams are pretty good, but not great. The total for this game is slightly higher than normal, sitting at nine runs. Both starters have struggled against the opponents they face today. The Red Sox are a team that trend toward the under but I think we have to go over in this game. I expect both teams to have the opportunity to make an impact against their opponent. I'll back over 9 tonight and hope we can get some offense going. 

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