Rams Offense Is The Only Reliable Thing In This Game

Rams vs Falcons, 8:15 ET

I went just 1-1 yesterday with the win coming as the 49ers covered the spread against the Bears - depending on which number you got in at. I had San Francisco -3, which was an earlier number. It brings up an important point about a lot of these articles: They are written in advance and often scheduled for days later. That's for a variety of reasons, but someone called me out on Twitter for being lazy (essentially not doing research on a game when a key player was out). I respect that he called me out for it, but the reality is that when I wrote the article, the player wasn't listed as being out. Just like when I wrote the Bears/49ers article, the line was -3. I try to be as helpful as possible, and will continue to work at improving. Ultimately, as with every article you read, don't blindly follow. Use it as part of your analysis. After all, it is your money. Your money is precisely what I'm trying to help you grow as the Rams and Falcons take the field on Monday Night Football.

The Rams are 11-4 for the season and are 5-3 on the road. This has been an impressive campaign for Los Angeles, but there are definitely some games they wish they could have back. Their losses are against the Eagles, 49ers, Panthers, and Seahawks. All four are potential or confirmed playoff teams, so it isn't like they are losing to nobodies. The problem is that they probably should've beaten the Eagles. The game against the 49ers was a prime opportunity to beat a division rival that was banged up, and Los Angeles was at home. Matthew Stafford had his worst game of the season against the Panthers, and they still only lost 31-28. Last week, they traveled to Seattle in a very important game for their playoff seeding and division. They ended up losing 38-37 in overtime. The defense allowed a late touchdown, and the Seahawks went for the kill with a 2-point conversion, nailing it, and thus winning the game. This might've been Stafford's best game of a great year, but unfortunately, the defense couldn't get the job done. 

Kirk Cousins looks like a million bucks with his $15 haircuts. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The Falcons are just 6-9 for the season and 2-4 at home. This has been a season to forget for Atlanta, but it also has to be a very frustrating year for them. Many expected them to take a step forward this year, and likely make the playoffs, if not win the division. They've been eliminated, so that is out the window, but they can keep working for next season. Michael Penix Jr. is on the IR, so the ball continues to go to Kirk Cousins, who has actually played fairly well. Don't get me wrong, he isn't lighting the world on fire, and they aren't going to just hand him the starting job next year, but he has won their past two games, both road contests. The Falcons have been a hard team to predict this year because they either are in the game basically until the last possession, or they are blown out and it is an embarrassment. They have five one-score losses, and four losses where they've scored 10 or fewer points, and lost by at least 10 in each of them. 

So what do you do with a team that is all over the map? Personally, I avoid the spread. Sure, they are playing better right now, but do you really trust the Falcons against a playoff team? I guess looking at their schedule there is reason to trust them. They beat the Bills, hung with the Patriots, and beat Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Then again, they also lost to Tampa, Carolina, San Francisco, and Seattle. I think the best thing to do here is rely on the Rams to continue doing what they've done all season - score points. They are averaging 30.5 points per game, and they score 32.9 in road games, part of that seems to be that their defense doesn't have as much road success. Atlanta is only allowing 24 points per game, but they are allowing 27.5 at home this year. To that point, the Rams are allowing 21.8 on the road, compared to 17.9 at home. I'm going to take the Rams team total over 27.5 tonight, but wouldn't be shocked to see the game go over the total either.

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