Quarterbacks Will Not Have Great Games In Super Bowl LIX

Chiefs vs. Eagles, 6:30 ET

Chiefs vs. Eagles, 6:30 ET

Can you feel the excitement getting closer and closer? I certainly can! The Super Bowl is just days away and as I keep breaking down more and more plays I'm very exited to get to the actual day and see what the results are for my bets. I've already talked about the rushing props that I like and the receiving props. With those under my belt, I am going to look into the quarterback props for Super Bowl LIX between the Chiefs and the Eagles. 

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are going for his third consecutive Super Bowl victory. I will have an article Sunday on my thoughts for his MVP candidacy and who I think will win, so you'll have to wait for those ones. This was not the best season for Mahomes though. He racked up 3,928 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and a 67.7 QBR, but he also tossed 11 interceptions. For a guy whose career has been out of this world, he didn't have the most impressive campaign. He had the fewest touchdowns he has had since becoming a starter (technically he had 26 in 2019, but he only played in 14 games). He also threw for under 4,000 yards for the first time in his career. We thought last year was a bad campaign from Mahomes, but this year got worse. He also took 36 sacks this season, the most of his career. Game-by-game, Mahomes had two games this season in which he didn't throw a touchdown, but he also had four games where he threw a touchdown pass. Including the postseason, he has eight games in which he threw just one touchdown pass. That puts him at 10 of 18 games where he had two or fewer touchdowns. He faced three top-10 defenses this season, the 49ers, Chargers, and Texans. He didn't have a game this season against a top-10 defense that saw him get two touchdown passes. I like the under 1.5 touchdown passes for Mahomes in this one, but just know that betting against him isn't a really profitable endeavor. While I just like it, and lean toward it, I do like the passing yardage under 252.5 for the game. Against those top-10 defenses (and again, the Eagles are the top passing defense in football), Mahomes had just one game where he went over that total. I expect him to struggle getting the ball to receivers, and mostly am expecting short yardage throws. His passing attempts are at 36.5 for the game, he did go over that 11 times this season, including twice against top-10 opponents. He has only thrown the ball 51 total times in the playoffs, neither game going over 30. His completion number is at 24.5 as well. He went over the number in half the games, but he hasn't even reached 20 in the playoff games. 

I'll be honest, I love Mahomes, but I feel like this is a game to fade him. If I like him, and think we should fade him, then how do I feel about Jalen Hurts, a guy that I think is an average passer. Hurts also had a bit of a down year in terms of his success. He didn't get over 3,000 passing yards for the first time since his rookie season. He had 18 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. The yardage and touchdowns placed him at 20th in the league. This is primarily a running club, and Hurts does more damage on the ground than through the air. He has just six games this season where he has thrown two touchdown passes in a game and one of them did come in the playoffs. If you think the Eagles are going to play from behind, you'd expect an increase in his passing attempts with 27.5 being the total. He only averaged 24 per game so far. He had seven games where his attempts went over the total. His completion percentage is about 68%. Let's assume it is a tight line and he goes over the total of attempts at 28. Completing 19 passes would get him to that percentage. His completion total is at 18.5. For the season, he went over that total just five times. One of them was the last game against the Commanders. He has had eight games where he threw over 213.5 yards, again only one of those came in the playoffs. I don't have much trust that he will get over any of these totals considering they will run Barkley into the ground, and the Chiefs are a pretty decent passing defense. The Commanders had a top-10 passing defense, but Hurts played well against them.

One small note before I share my plays: I don't think there will be a Philly special or a third person to throw a touchdown pass in this. Is it possible, of course, and I'm not playing the "no" but I don't believe we will get a non-QB to toss a touchdown. 

Quarterback Bets:

  • Mahomes under 252.5 passing yards
  • Mahomes under 36.5 passing attempts
  • Mahomes under 24.5 passing completions
  • Hurts under 18.5 passing competitions
  • Hurts under 27.5 passing attempts

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024