Purdue And UCLA Should Find Baskets Often Tonight

UCLA vs. Purdue, 8:00 ET

I know a lot of people out there are trends bettors. They look to see what has hit over the last 50 times in the same situation and try to look for an edge or angle from that data. I personally am not much of a trends person, at least not more than recent history. I feel like that you're looking at data that doesn't reflect the team you're betting on when you see that a team is 36-12 on Thursday nights at home over the last five years - or whatever. Sometimes it does work out though as it did last night in taking the points with Rutgers against a Michigan home team that has a trend of playing close home games. It was nice to get a victory there. I'm hoping to grab another Big 10 matchup victory here as the UCLA Bruins take on the Purdue Boilermakers.

UCLA comes into today's game with a very strong 20-8 record, but they have struggled a bit in conference play, going just 11-6. They have been playing really well lately though having won nine of their past 11 games. They have lost two of their past four games though. They lost on the road to Illinois who has struggled to beat anyone lately, and they lost to Minnesota at home last week which was a bit surprising. Their biggest struggle came in an early January stretch where they lost four straight games, with three of them coming on the road as they fell to Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers on the road and Michigan at home. It was a bit of a mix in those four games of losing close ones and losing by a big margin. Their other two losses this season came against New Mexico and North Carolina, both of them on neutral courts. What is impressive is that over the past 11 games, they've beaten Wisconsin, Oregon, and Michigan State, all three of which are ranked teams. 

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 18: UCLA Bruins head coach Mick Cronin talks with UCLA Bruins center Aday Mara (15) during the game between the Minnesota Gophers and the UCLA Bruins on February 18, 2025, at Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by David Dennis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

For Purdue, their season has been all about trying to move forward after losing their key player. It is really difficult to figure out how to create a new identity, but to their credit they needed to redo their offense and also change up their defense. For the year, Purdue is 19-9 and they have gone 11-6 in the Big 10 matchups. Purdue is playing their worst basketball of the season at the moment though with losses in four straight games. They fell to Michigan on the road by two, then lost to Wisconsin on their home court by 10, and followed those losses with games on the road against Michigan State and Indiana. I can't really say why they lost these games and what the issue is/was. They still have all their main players, but it has been a tough stretch. Sure, road games are tough, but losing to Wisconsin at home is a really tough look. 

I'm a bit surprised at the total on this game. It is moving down right now after opening at 140.5, but I don't agree with that line movement. I think both of these teams are going to score in the 70s in this game. I also kind of lean toward taking the points with UCLA. They are a good team, and have been playing well lately. I don't love them on the road though. It isn't a strong feeling though as I think Purdue needs the win here. I'll instead back the over as I expect both teams to get enough points to make this an easy win. 

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